Polish Presidential Race Tightens as Eurosceptic Nawrocki Edges Ahead

Eurosceptic nationalist Karol Nawrocki holds a narrow lead in Poland’s presidential election, according to late exit polls. The Ipsos poll for TVN, TVP, and Polsat showed Nawrocki with 50.7% of the vote, while liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski trailed closely at 49.3%. Earlier estimates had Nawrocki at 49.7%. Official results are expected Monday, with updated projections overnight.

Nawrocki, 42, a former national remembrance institute head and amateur boxer, campaigned on a platform prioritizing Polish citizens over foreign nationals, including Ukrainian refugees. While Poland's parliament holds legislative power, the presidency remains crucial due to its veto authority.

The vote is viewed as a key referendum on the pro-European government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, opposes Tusk’s liberal agenda and promises to counterbalance the coalition government.

Though both candidates support Ukraine’s defense against Russia and increased military spending aligned with NATO demands, they diverge on Ukraine’s NATO membership. Trzaskowski sees it as vital for Poland’s security, while Nawrocki warned it could drag NATO into war with Russia.

Social issues also shaped the race. Trzaskowski supports easing Poland’s near-total abortion ban, a stance opposed by outgoing nationalist President Andrzej Duda. The campaign has been intense, with Nawrocki facing media scrutiny over past allegations.

Nawrocki’s potential victory would align Poland more closely with Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, strengthening a Eurosceptic bloc in Central Europe. It could also influence upcoming elections in the Czech Republic, where populist Andrej Babis seeks a return to power.

The tight race highlights Poland’s growing political divide between pro-EU liberalism and rising nationalist sentiment.