US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Soft Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears 
European Regulators Clash With U.S. Treasury Over Private Credit Transparency 
BOJ Hawk Signals Faster Interest Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Risks 
Asian Stocks Slide as Chip Selloff Deepens Ahead of TSMC Earnings 
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar 
Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Bets Grow 
Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Strikes on Iran Raise Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears 
China Keeps Loan Prime Rates Unchanged for 13th Straight Month as Policymakers Prioritize Credit Demand Recovery 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Fuels Inflation Fears, Strengthens Dollar 
China Trade Surplus Hits $125.6 Billion as June Exports, Imports Smash Forecasts 
US Inflation Expected to Ease in June, but Fed Rate Hike Risks Persist Amid Middle East Tensions 
BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 1% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Japan Signals Surprise Yen Intervention Strategy as BOJ Hawkish Stance Puts FX Traders on Alert 
Central Banks Eye Gold, Reduce Dollar Exposure as AI Adoption Accelerates: OMFIF Survey 
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its repo rate unchanged at 5.50% on Wednesday, but chances of another rate cut have risen after the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on Indian exports last week. According to a Reuters poll conducted July 18–24, 44 of 57 economists see the RBI maintaining rates.
The new 25% tariff has heightened concerns over economic growth, with ANZ Research noting it adds a “growth shock” to an already fragile outlook. Both growth and inflation are projected to fall short of the RBI’s forecasts. The central bank delivered a surprise 50-basis-point cut in June and shifted to a neutral stance, signaling future moves will be data-driven.
India’s manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 in July, its fastest pace in 16 months, but business confidence sank to a three-year low on competitive and inflationary pressures. Retail inflation eased to 2.10% in June, a six-year low near the RBI’s lower tolerance limit, with July inflation expected to hit a record low.
Barclays’ India chief economist Aastha Gudwani said the low inflation backdrop supports easing but may not justify a fourth straight cut. Nomura raised its probability of an August cut to 35% from 10% but maintained that the bar remains high after June’s move.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated the inflation battle is “won” but the “war” continues, with policy guided by growth and inflation outlooks. Markets are not pricing in a rate cut, though a surprise move could trigger a rally. Traders are also watching for a possible revised liquidity framework announcement alongside the policy decision.
