The refugee crisis, which may test further the limits of integration, particularly after the recent tragic events in Paris. A potential backlash against external immigration would have detrimental consequences for long-term growth. Also, potential consequences of the turmoil in the German auto industry, which is hard to quantify at this stage. The path of the currency is another source of significant risk. 

The forecasts are dependent on the FX strategists' call for the EUR/USD to go to parity by 1Q next year. If instead the EUR/USD did not move much from current levels, a NEER around 5% stronger is expected in 2016. Given the typical elasticities, this would have an additional cost of 10-20bp for GDP growth, bringing the forecast for 2016 to 1.5-1.6% of GDP. 

Recession risks are low in the next two years given that the economy is far from overheating and the chance for an overall tightening in the policy-mix is very low. That said, when trend growth is so low, small unforeseen negative shocks can temporarily bring the economy to negative growth rates.