Russia continues stagnation

Russia's real sector indicators in November, came in mixed, but show continuation of recession, which officially began in third quarter of 2014 and the quarter on quarter decline intensified through Q2 2015.

"While momentum improved in Q3 15, we think growth will remain negative in Q4, leading to an annual decline of -3.7% in 2015. Retail sales gapped lower in November, to -13.1%", says Barclays ina research note. 

The rate of decline in IP, investment and real wages moderated, which implies stabilisation. This could create an environment in which growth could resume in 2016.

Nonetheless, the latest decline in oil prices and the subsequent rouble depreciation in November and December, much of which will not have been reflected in the November real sector indicators could cause further deterioration if the trend continues in 2016.