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The THB’s outperformance has spurred concern as it could hurt the export hub’s competitiveness. The central bank said Monday in a statement that "The BoT has observed occasional increases in the volume of foreign exchange transactions.
Therefore, the BoT requires commercial banks to provide additional information in the event of an unusually high volume of transfers between non-resident baht accounts which may relate to Thai baht speculation. The BoT may also consider additional measures to limit the opportunity for Thai Baht speculation." It suggests that an excessively strong THB is not in local regulators’ interest.
Thailand's economy grew at its fastest pace in over four years in the second quarter, expanding 3.7 percent y/y amid a recovery in global trade versus a market estimate of a 3.2 percent growth. The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) on Monday raised its GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 3.5-4.0 percent from 3.3-3.8 percent projected in May.
The NESDB is now expecting exports to rise 5.7 percent this year, up from the earlier forecast of 3.6 percent. Further, the BoT said on Monday that it may raise its 2017 GDP growth forecast in September monetary policy report again, after increasing it to 3.5 percent in its June report from the previous estimate of 3.4 percent.
In a statement released on August 16, the BoT said that "Thailand’s growth outlook improved further on the back of the expansion in merchandise and services exports," and "domestic demand continued to expand at a gradual pace, although it was not sufficiently broad-based". Strong economic growth momentum has led to the nation’s large trade surplus and current account surplus. The THB has appreciated 7.8 percent year-to-date amid large bond inflows, the best-performing currency in the region.
"The THB could continue to outperform regional peers with USD/THB possibly heading for the 33.0 level followed by a consolidating pattern," Scotiabank commented in its latest research report.
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