Thai baht likely to outperform and hold around 31.50-31.80 range, says Commerzbank

The Thai baht is expected to outperform and hold around the 31.50-31.80 range, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank.

The Thai baht (THB) continues to be the outperformer among Asian currencies this year. It is up 2.7 percent vs the USD year-to-date compared to the average gain of 0.4 percent for Asian currencies. This is an extension of the trend in 2018 where THB was flat vs USD while Asian currencies fell on average by 3.6 percent.

The outperformance stems from Thailand’s sound economic fundamentals and strong net portfolio inflows since the start of the year. This is a far cry from the 22 years ago when the sudden depreciation of THB sparked contagion and the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.

The economy is expected to expand 4 percent this year on top of 2018’s 4.2 percent while the current account should remain in a healthy surplus position of around 6.5 percent of GDP. Net portfolio inflows into both the equity and debt markets in Thailand amounted to USD319 billion year-to-date.