Thailand’s Exports Surge to 3-Year High Despite U.S. Tariff Risks

Thailand’s exports jumped 17.8% year-on-year in March, marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase and the highest level in three years, according to the Commerce Ministry. The figure outperformed analysts’ expectations of 13.5% and surpassed February’s 14.0% growth, underscoring the sector’s resilience despite mounting global trade tensions.

Exports, a crucial driver of Thailand’s economy, rose 15.2% in the first quarter of 2025. The ministry maintains a cautious annual growth forecast of 2% to 3%, following a record $301 billion in export value in 2024. March shipments to the United States, Thailand’s top trading partner, surged 34.3% year-on-year, while exports to China rose 22.4%.

Imports also grew more than expected, increasing by 10.2% versus a 6.1% forecast. The trade surplus stood at $0.97 billion, slightly below the $1.1 billion forecast.

Despite the strong figures, the outlook is clouded by steep U.S. tariffs. President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed a 36% tariff on Thai goods—one of the highest in the region—which could remain unless a deal is struck before a global moratorium ends in July. Last year, the U.S. accounted for 18.3% of Thai exports, or $54.96 billion, while Washington’s trade deficit with Thailand was estimated at $45.6 billion.

The Commerce Ministry warned that rising U.S. tariffs and potential retaliatory measures from other nations pose significant risks to global trade and Thailand’s export momentum in the coming months.

With geopolitical uncertainty looming, Thai exporters may face a tougher landscape in the second half of 2025, even as current performance remains strong.