‘The West must build economic bridges, not send subs, to combat China’s rising influence in Asia Pacific’

The West is fighting a losing battle by prioritising military engagement instead of trade diplomacy in the region, says CCP critic Guo Wengui, aka Miles Kwok.

China has been building new battleships, the Guardian reported last week. Already the largest naval force in the world, the People’s Liberation Army is growing their navy at a pace that threatens to upset the United States’ status as the dominant military power on the seas.

The military pact, Aukus, signed by the US, UK, and Australia will only add to the naval buildup in the South China Sea. Announced in September, Aukus is a historic first, allowing the construction of nuclear-powered submarines by Australia to patrol international waters. China has lambasted the agreement as “extremely irresponsible.” Some regional analysts agree, seeing Aukus as far from improving East-West relations, instead further destabilising them.

Critics of the CCP, including Guo Wengui, aka Miles Kwok, who is living in self-imposed exile in the US, believe Aukus is far from being a sign of strength, but a demonstration of the West’s weakness in East Asia and a misunderstanding of how to better combat China in the region.

Indeed, military intimidation in the Asia Pacific is straight from the Cold War playbook. Heightened aggressions in the South China Sea fails to capture why support for the US in East Asia has been in decline and China’s has risen greatly. Simply put, the US economic presence is shrinking; China’s is the opposite, bolstered via the Belt and Road Initiative. A military pact misses the point.

The US is increasingly isolated from trade in the region. The blunders surrounding the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is just the latest example. Following the departure of the US from the trade bloc, China has formally applied for the CPTPP this week after months of deliberation. The pact brings together the 10 ASEAN countries, as well as Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, to form the world's largest trade bloc, covering around 30 per cent of the world's population and gross domestic product.

The top trading partner of the 10-nation bloc, joining the CPTPP is a strategic foreign policy objective for China, looking to secure its global supply and value chains and networks, as well as boost resilience through its dual circulation strategy. Additionally, China’s economy further decelerated in August, as the government imposed strict measures to quell a COVID-19 outbreak that began in late July.

To shore up post-Covid economic growth, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s completed a six-day trip to four countries in the region this summer. This included visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, South Korea, and Singapore, the latter coming two weeks after US Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to the island nation. China’s was arguably more successful. While Harris used her visit to condemn China’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, Wang reminded the small island nation that China and Southeast Asian countries’ economies were closely intertwined. The statement is clear: the region’s post-pandemic recovery would be shaped by Beijing, not Washington.

Singapore has responded in kind. In a statement on Monday night, Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said DPM Heng and Mr Wang noted the excellent relationship between Singapore and China, and the progress made in deepening cooperation, even amid the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Fearful of China’s entrance into the CPTPP, the US has half-heartedly attempted to strengthen economic ties with other Asian countries as a way of showing that they are back in the game. But if the US wants to deal China real damage, it must do more than token gestures, such as vaccine diplomacy, or else risk damage to its credibility in the region.

Let us reconsider the Arkus agreement. There are no East Asian signatories. Australia is the nearest, but the nation has little regional support, seen as Western aligned, instead of aligned with Asia Pacific interests. If it works as planned, Australia's first nuclear submarine will not be ready until 2040, whereas China is building one every 15 months. The UK has almost zero presence in the East Asia. Apart from an occasional naval presence of its Great White Elephant, its strangely named new aircraft carrier, the UK has lost all influence in the region as seen with its diplomatic passivity to China regarding its former colony, Hong Kong.

The pact has already resulted in discord and division in the Western Five Eyes grouping. Both Canada and New Zealand have been excluded. New Zealand has made it clear that it will not join and Australian nuclear subs will not be allowed in its waters. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also aroused the wrath of France by cancelling the agreement for the latter to build its new subs.

An ever-diminishing Western alliance will only serve a future of China being the most important power in Asia Pacific in the next ten years. Let the lessons learned from the most recent diplomatic failures in Vietnam and Singapore be a call to action. Instead of rapidly growing naval fleets establishing their presence, the West needs to build bridges with the region, redefining a new economic balance that offers Asia Pacific freedom from Chinese hegemonic trade.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or the management of EconoTimes