Trump Administration Fuel-Efficiency Rollback Could Raise Long-Term Costs for U.S. Drivers

The Trump administration’s proposal to scale back Biden-era fuel-efficiency standards may save automakers billions, but experts warn that American drivers will ultimately pay far more at the pump. Under the new plan, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) aim to lower the average fleet fuel-economy requirement to 34.5 miles per gallon by 2031, a substantial drop from the 50.4 mpg target set under President Biden.

According to NHTSA’s economic analysis, automakers such as Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis could save roughly $35 billion through 2031. The report also suggests that upfront vehicle prices could fall by around $930 if manufacturers pass these savings on to consumers. However, the same analysis projects a dramatic increase in fuel consumption—an additional 100 billion gallons through 2050—costing Americans up to $185 billion in extra fuel expenses.

Industry experts argue that the short-term savings on vehicle prices will be outweighed almost immediately by the higher cost of operating less-efficient vehicles. Jason Schwartz of NYU’s Institute for Policy Integrity emphasized that consumers will feel the financial impact from the first day of driving, noting that reduced efficiency means spending more on gas, maintenance, and time at the pump.

The White House defends the rollback, stating that it gives consumers more choice and reduces reliance on expensive electric vehicles, which some automakers still struggle to produce profitably. The administration also claims that long-term fuel-cost estimates are highly speculative.

Scientists and clean-transportation advocates disagree. Dave Cooke of the Union of Concerned Scientists said the proposal effectively imposes higher lifetime fuel costs on consumers beginning with model year 2027 in every scenario analyzed. Additionally, the NHTSA report indicates that the rollback would increase carbon emissions by about 5% compared to Biden’s standards, raising environmental and public health concerns.

While analysts at Edmunds note that the full impact may take years due to long automotive development cycles, many experts believe consumers will ultimately face higher long-term expenses despite lower upfront vehicle prices.