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Trump Nears Decision on Iran Ceasefire Extension as Key Disputes Remain 
President Donald Trump signaled cautious optimism Monday over ongoing negotiations with Iran, while simultaneously issuing stark warnings about potential military escalation if a deal fails to materialize. In a Truth Social post, Trump described what he called "serious discussions" with a new Iranian leadership he characterized as more open to compromise, saying "great progress has been made" toward a potential agreement.
Despite the hopeful tone, Trump threatened to destroy critical Iranian infrastructure — including oil facilities, electric power plants, and desalination systems — if negotiations collapse or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to international shipping. He framed any such action as retaliation for American lives lost due to Iranian aggression.
Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref pushed back, insisting that any dialogue must begin with a U.S. guarantee of non-invasion and formal recognition of Iran's international rights. Iranian state media quoted Aref accusing Western nations of "begging" Tehran to reopen the strait, a crucial global oil corridor whose closure has rattled energy markets worldwide.
Conflict across the region continued Monday, with Iran launching projectiles toward Israel and Persian Gulf nations. Israeli forces also intercepted drone attacks originating from Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi militants have widened the now month-long war. Analysts are increasingly concerned about potential strikes near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical maritime choke point linking the Red Sea to global shipping lanes.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that talks with Tehran were progressing "extremely well," and pointed to 20 Pakistani-flagged oil tankers reportedly allowed through the Hormuz Strait as a sign of Iranian concessions. He also hinted at seizing Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, stating "we have a lot of options."
Prediction markets now place a 72% probability on U.S. troops entering Iran before April 30.
