Since December 2011, the UK LFS jobless rate has been declining due to weak productivity and growth revival. However, growth in employment has decelerated in recent months. In March, the claimant count increased, indicating a rise in the jobless rate in April, noted Societe Generale in a research report. On the broader Labor Force Survey (LFS) data, growth in employment is faltering. Even if it continues at the same rate as previous months, the LFS jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.2% to 5.1% in the three months to March, added Societe Generale.
The jobless rate trend is likely near to bottoming out. But even if the jobless rate is expected to have increased, it will be too early to “call that as the floor for the rate”, said Societe Generale.
“Growth in regular earnings should edge up from 2.2% to 2.3% and growth in total earnings including bonuses should rebound from 1.8% to 2.1% 3mth yoy”, according to Societe Generale.
