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Another post-referendum unemployment report will be published today, however, today’s report may not be a major market mover for the pound but rather work as a support for all pound based pairs, which got energized by an inflation report that showed that prices rose by 1.6 percent y/y in December compared to 1.2 percent in November. After that, it was UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech that boosted the pound, since her Brexit negotiations vision was much milder than expected.
One of the key measures of economic well-being is the unemployment report, which will be released from the United Kingdom today at 9:30 GMT. The reports released so far have showed not much of an impact of Brexit. For today, the expectations are similar.
Below is the preview of the report -
- As of now, the unemployment rate in the UK stands at 4.8 percent and median estimate suggests it is likely to rise by just 0.1 percent.
- So, the major focus will be on earnings growth since that will be the measure of economic wellbeing.
- Moreover, a positive wage growth should help to downsize the fear of a slowdown in the economy. It will be nice evidence that companies are ready to increase wages even in the face of a potential exit from the union. BoE governor Carney said that the central bank would be monitoring the level of income closely.
- Wage growth has been declining since October last year when it reached a peak of 2.8 percent growth excluding bonus. Wage growth was 2.3 percent including bonus and 2.4 percent excluding it last month. It has recovered from a dip in February when it grew by 1.8 percent including bonus.
- Today earnings growth is expected to be at 2.6 percent both including and excluding bonus.
It is likely to provide support to the pound if the data comes better than expected or even come in line with expectations. However, we expect the overall downside pressure to remain as the focus is on Brexit and Trump policies.
The pound is currently trading at 1.234 against the dollar.
