U.S. Recession Risk Rises to 40% Amid Economic Uncertainty

The probability of a U.S. recession this year has climbed to 40%, according to Bruce Kasman, J.P. Morgan’s chief global economist. Speaking in Singapore, Kasman expressed growing concerns over economic instability, marking an increase from his initial 30% projection earlier this year.

Kasman warned that recession risks could exceed 50% if former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs take effect in April. He stressed that continued policy disruptions and business-unfriendly measures could further weaken economic stability.

Despite maintaining a 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025, J.P. Morgan acknowledges mounting risks. U.S. stock markets recently suffered their steepest decline in months, fueled by investor fears that import tariffs could slow economic expansion. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have already downgraded their U.S. GDP growth projections to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.

Kasman also cautioned that ongoing political and economic uncertainty could erode investor confidence in U.S. markets. He emphasized that trust in market regulations, transparent information flow, and government stability are crucial for economic resilience.

As concerns over tariffs and economic policies intensify, investors are closely watching for shifts that could further impact financial markets.