U.S. Stocks End Week Higher as Markets Anticipate Fed Rate Cut

U.S. stocks closed the week with modest gains on Friday, as investors weighed a wave of delayed economic data and maintained strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting. Despite the data backlog caused by the recent 43-day government shutdown, analysts said the latest reports reinforced the view that the economy remains resilient while inflation is gradually cooling.

Fresh numbers from the Commerce Department showed that consumer spending—responsible for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity—rose 0.3% in September, matching economists’ expectations after a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in August. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased 0.3% for the month and climbed 2.8% year-over-year, both in line with forecasts.

Consumer sentiment strengthened as well. The University of Michigan’s survey showed confidence rising to 53.3 in early December, beating expectations and signaling improved outlooks despite lingering inflation concerns.

Market pricing reflected growing confidence in a Fed rate cut, with CME’s FedWatch Tool showing an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction—up sharply from under 30% two weeks ago after several Fed officials signaled support for easing.

The Dow gained 0.22% to finish at 47,954.99, the S&P 500 added 0.19% to 6,870.40, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.31% to 23,578.13. All three major indexes posted a second week of gains. Small-cap stocks also rallied, with the Russell 2000 extending its strong rebound as investors bet lower rates will aid more leveraged, high-beta companies.

Corporate headlines also drew attention. Warner Bros Discovery surged 6.3% after Netflix agreed to acquire its TV, film, and streaming assets for $72 billion. Netflix shares dipped, while Paramount Skydance fell sharply. Ulta Beauty jumped nearly 13% after boosting its annual outlook.

While the S&P 500 sits just 1% below a record high, analysts say next week’s Fed decision—and any hints about future policy—will steer market momentum heading into year-end.