Deep dissatisfaction with US labor market has been a hallmark of the current US economic recovery, as well as the previous ones since the 1990s.
Despite significant improvement on a wide variety of other labor market measures such as the addition of 13mn jobs and a steep drop in the unemployment rate by half to 5.1% since the nadir of the crisis environment, this has not felt like a strong recovery to many.
To a large extent, such sentiment may be the result of the changing and more "polarized" structure of the labor market. Jobs in the middle of the skill distribution have yet to recover, even with consistent net improvement in employment at both the high and low-skilled end of the labor market.
In other words, the polarization of the labor market, where middle-skill and middle-class jobs are hollowed out despite gains for high-skill and low-skilled jobs, has significantly diminished any sense of recovery.
"The idea of labor polarization is not new, but it has felt more extreme in this cycle. Polarization, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen previously noted, helps to explain how zero may be the appropriate policy rate for such a lengthy period despite employment metrics that, on their face, would have implied non-zero rates long ago", says Bank of America.
As such, it is a factor keeping the Fed on the sidelines for such a long time, thereby depressing US yields and helping delay the US dollar from reaching the expectation of further gains.


Chinese AI Stocks Rally After OpenAI Launches GPT-6 Astra
UK House Prices Fall for First Time Since 2023
China Expands Influence in Global Gold Market
U.S. Payrolls Seen Rebounding in August as Labor Market Stays Soft
European Stocks Flat as Iran Tensions, ECB Rate Hike Loom
ECB Set for September Rate Hike as Energy Prices Fuel Inflation
Japan Foreign Reserves Plunge $79.6 Billion After Record Yen Intervention
Hong Kong Eyes Offshore Yuan Expansion, Deeper China Market Links
Asian Currencies Mixed as Yen Rallies on BOJ Bets
US Stock Futures Mixed as Strong Jobs Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets
OPEC+ Expected to Hold October Oil Output Steady
Hungary Industrial Output Beats Forecasts With 4.7% July Growth 



