South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
Nikkei 225 Hits Record High Above 56,000 After Japan Election Boosts Market Confidence 
Dollar Near Two-Week High as Stock Rout, AI Concerns and Global Events Drive Market Volatility 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Indian Refiners Scale Back Russian Oil Imports as U.S.-India Trade Deal Advances 
U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Markets Brace for Jobs and Inflation Data 
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Yen Firms on Intervention Talk 
Russian Stocks End Mixed as MOEX Index Closes Flat Amid Commodity Strength 
Asian Stocks Slip as Tech Rout Deepens, Japan Steadies Ahead of Election 
Australian Pension Funds Boost Currency Hedging as Aussie Dollar Strengthens 
U.S.-India Trade Framework Signals Major Shift in Tariffs, Energy, and Supply Chains 
Yen Slides as Japan Election Boosts Fiscal Stimulus Expectations 
USD/INR is expected to consolidate for a while after strengthening substantially since the BJP’s victory while staying with our long INR position funded with the low-yielding SGD and TWD. USD/INR is likely to rise towards 67.0 from late April to May as the United States Federal Reserve may intend to talk up the chance of a June rate hike at that time.
In the medium-term, the INR is expected to continue benefitting from the Union Budget with fiscal prudence, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) neutral monetary policy stance and further economic reforms. Finance minister Arun Jaitley has said that legislation related to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will have to be passed in the ongoing budget session that will end on April 12 with the objective of rolling out the GST from July 1, Scotiabank reported.
Reuters and Bloomberg reported Thursday that India’s finance ministry will hold a meeting with bankers today to discuss setting up a new monetary policy tool (Standing Deposit Facility) to manage excess liquidity.
The tool was proposed by the Urjit Patil-led panel reviewing monetary policy in 2014 to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system by the RBI without the need for collateral. It is expected to provide support to USD/INR FX forward points.
"We stay vigilant on market sentiment as the US House of Representatives postponed the vote on the American Health Care Act to Friday. Risk-aversion will intensify if the House votes not to pass the Act as it will raise market doubts about the Trump team’s capability to push forward reforms and release pro-growth policies," the report said.
