Wall Street Futures Dip as Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher

Wall Street futures slipped on Monday while oil prices briefly surged to five-month highs, as investors grew anxious over a potential Iranian retaliation following U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities. The geopolitical uncertainty stoked fears of supply disruptions and inflation, though market reaction remained relatively contained.

Brent crude rose 1.9% to $78.46 per barrel, and U.S. crude gained 2% to $75.30, having pulled back from initial peaks. Analysts at ANZ warned that if Iran disrupts oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil flows—prices could spike to the $90–95 per barrel range. JPMorgan noted historical regime changes in the region often sent oil soaring by up to 76%.

Despite the tension, markets showed resilience. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures lost 0.5%, having earlier fallen nearly 1%. Nikkei futures hovered slightly lower at 38,380. Gold edged up 0.2% to $3,375 an ounce, while the U.S. dollar gained 0.2% against the yen at 146.36 and the dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.008.

Treasury futures showed minimal movement, suggesting no rush to traditional safe-haven assets. Interest rate futures ticked lower as rising oil prices raised inflation concerns. While some investors still hope for a Fed rate cut in July, most expect action in September. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently supported a July cut, diverging from more cautious peers like Chair Jerome Powell.

This week brings speeches from at least 15 Fed officials and Powell’s testimony before Congress, where economic impacts of tariffs and the Iran conflict are expected to dominate discussions. Meanwhile, NATO leaders meet in The Hague to address defense spending amid Middle East tensions. Upcoming U.S. data includes core inflation, jobless claims, and global factory output.