Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
New York Fed President John Williams Signals Rate Hold as Economy Seen Strong in 2026 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
Our expectations are in sharp contrast to expectations from big investment banks. As situation has improved both in inflationary terms globally and financial markets, oil price edged up, along with industrial commodities we don't expect European Central Bank (ECB) to do much today. Due to increased risks towards banking sector, we don't expect ECB to cut deposit rates further and increase stimulus by no more than € 10 billion.
Followings are the calls from analysts at big investment banks -
- Barclays - 10 basis points rate cut. No increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Inclusion of more instruments (semi-public entities) into the purchase program.
- Citi - 10 basis points rate cut. €15 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline.
- Credit Suisse - 10 basis points rate cut. €20 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Inclusion instruments like index or corporate credit or synthetic basket.
- Goldman Sachs - 10 basis points rate cut. €10 billion increase in asset purchase. 6 months increase in purchase timeline.
- HSBC - 10 basis points rate cut. No increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Introduce more LTROs.
- Morgan Stanley - 10 basis points rate cut. €20 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline.
- RBS - 20 basis points rate cut. €10-15 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline.
- UBS - Minimum 10 basis points rate cut. €10 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Introduce more LTROs. Include non-bank corporates in purchase list.
