FxWirePro: US politics versus Europe politics to engulf EUR/USD momentum in H1’2017 but US central bank fuels dollar yields

Jan 11, 2017 07:32 am UTC| Central Banks

New cycle highs: Between late January and May, the US dollar fell 7.5% as an EM sell-off triggered (downward) revisions to expectations of Fed rate hikes and dragged 10y TIIPS yields down from over 70bp to below -10bp. But...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: What after FED hikes and hints of hawkish tones - Treasury yields, ETF liquidation, and Gold trade perspectives

Jan 11, 2017 06:04 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

This write up emphasizes the upholding longs in Feb17 CME gold futures following the December Fed hike, macro markets broadly reacted meaningfully to the more hawkish rate projection, with gold specifically selling off to...

FxWirePro: The Day Ahead- 11th January 2017

Jan 11, 2017 04:55 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks Economy

Lots of economic data and events scheduled for today but all with low to medium risks associated. Upcoming: Japan: Eco watchers survey for December will be published at 5:00 GMT. Trade balance for December will be...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Turkish inflation goes against CBRT projections yet again, lira still seems vulnerable – Try long in USD/TRY via option trades

Jan 10, 2017 12:36 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks

The 1.64% MoM increase in CPI was far above the 0.9% market consensus. Strong FX pass-through and some idiosyncratic factors, including a jump in egg prices, led to a much sharper-than-expected increase in headline CPI...

FxWirePro: Inflation stir-up in Emerging Europe except Norway- Outright option trades in PLN, CZK and NOK

Jan 10, 2017 11:59 am UTC| Central Banks

In Poland, the stronger activity and CPI data unlikely to shift NBP from its wait-and-see stance. We expect the NBP to maintain interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in its first meeting of the year while reiterating its...

Central Banking Series

BoE to look through inflation rise, could react if slowdown proves more modest than expected

Jan 10, 2017 11:30 am UTC| Insights & Views Economy Central Banks

Incoming economic data in UK do not support the view of an uncertainty driven slowdown in the aftermath of the EU referendum. UK economy expanded at 0.6 percent q/q in Q3 2016, the first full post-referendum quarter. The...

Trade War Series

Sniffing a Peg Break Series: Koruna- Euro peg likely to break soon

Jan 10, 2017 11:19 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

According to talks and rumors in the market, the Czech Central Bank, which has kept the Czech Koruna (CZK) pegged with the Euro since 2013 at 27 per euro could soon break away from this monetary policy regime. In an...