Germany punches below the belt for economic optimists

May 19, 2015 12:38 pm UTC| Commentary

The ZEW expectations index for the German economy fell surprisingly steeply in May from 53.3 to 41.9 points. This probably came as a punch to the stomach for economic optimists, as there are now increasing signals that the...

Stronger European growth, US weakness, more hawkish MPC

May 19, 2015 12:09 pm UTC| Commentary

Analysts believe that the upward revisions to Euro Area consensus growth forecasts have now largely run their course (taking 2016 GDP consensus to 1.8%). Likewise, the correction in 10-year Bund yields from 7bp to 72bp...

Supply concerns overshadow dollar weakness

May 19, 2015 12:07 pm UTC| Commentary

Weakness in the US dollar and rising oil prices would normally be considered positive for agricultural commodity prices. However, despite a 3.5% fall in the value of the US currency and a 5% rise in the price of Brent...

Emerging Markets exports raise questions over global demand

May 19, 2015 12:02 pm UTC| Commentary

Several factors help explain why the dollar value of exports from emerging markets fell sharply in March, including lower commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar and distortions in Chinas trade data. But the...

UK finally enters deflation

May 19, 2015 10:49 am UTC| Commentary

The UK has finally joined other advanced economies in experiencing deflation. This is a positive development and the risk that deflation becomes ingrained and so starts to have adverse effects remains very low. Indeed,...

BI left the reference rate of 7.5% unchanged

May 19, 2015 10:25 am UTC| Commentary

Going forward, there is no scope for significant BI easing (consensus: 40bps by mid-2016).BI remains focused on reining in its current account deficit, which is unlikely to improve much (BI forecast for 2015 at 3.3-3.5% of...

Strong demand the key to oil market strength

May 19, 2015 10:16 am UTC| Commentary

The next OPEC meeting is just over two weeks away. In annalystss view, the oil market has yet to reach consensus on the effect of the previous OPEC meeting. Opinions are divided over the extent to which the market has...