China's trade data probably shows a modest recovery in exports

May 04, 2015 05:39 am UTC| Commentary

The holiday distortion in China is now over, and exports are expected to have grown 3.5% y/y in April, versus a 15.0% y/y contraction in March. This is still a weak reading relative to average export growth of 4.6% in Q1,...

French industrial production to grow mildly in March

May 04, 2015 02:13 am UTC| Commentary

The French National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) is expected to report that industrial activity increased by 0.2% mom in March (1.3% yoy).If materialized this would lead the industrial output to rise by 1.3% qoq in Q1....

RBA likely ease again to support growth

May 04, 2015 00:26 am UTC| Commentary

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut the policy cash rate 25bps to a low of 2% on 5 May. This is likely to be another close call between easing the cash rate and delaying it to later in the year.The...

US services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2

May 03, 2015 23:17 pm UTC| Commentary

The ISM non-manufacturing index (5 May, 10:00 ET) will indicate the extent of a potential Q2 activity rebound after dismal Q1 GDP growth.The April ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 51.5 (although with the silver...

Philippines inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation

May 03, 2015 22:09 pm UTC| Commentary

The Philippines will release April inflation data on 5 May. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% in March, although on a m/m basis it likely picked up to 0.2% from -0.1%.Base effects for food inflation...

Indonesia's real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015

May 03, 2015 21:31 pm UTC| Commentary

Indonesias National Statistics Agency (BPS) will release Q1-2015 GDP data on 5 May. GDP growth of 5.1% y/y is expected, versus 5.0% in Q4-2014 and marginally higher than market consensus of 5.0%.Household consumption (the...

Euro area QE euphoria is fading and the ECB is too upbeat

May 03, 2015 21:06 pm UTC| Commentary

From a low of 7bp on 20 April, Bund yields are up five-fold to close Friday at 37bp. Over the same period, the US 10-year gained 22bp to 2.11% and EUR/USD gained 5 ticks to 1.12.Some easing of the worst fears on Greece is...