Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Deflation anniversary for India

Nov 16, 2015 07:39 am UTC| Insights & Views

Indias wholesale price index (WPI), one of the key measure of inflation in India, completed its first anniversary of deflation. Thanks to lower oil price, after years of inflation prices have been dropping past one year...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Improved RBI's policy credibility improves investor confidence

Nov 13, 2015 07:10 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The sell-off in the INR in near-term can be seen as opportunity to re-enter long positions in the currency versus the EUR. If the oil prices remain low, the improvement in Indias current account and fiscal balance...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazil's assets likely to deteriorate further

Nov 13, 2015 06:35 am UTC| Commentary

Brazilian assets are likely to deteriorate further. Brazils macroeconomic picture deteriorated substantially and its government is unable to address the fiscal situation. Political maneuver lacks in Brazil on the...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

EM economies: How will capital flows react to Fed hikes?

Nov 12, 2015 22:48 pm UTC| Commentary

In principle, the history of Fed hiking cycles has shown that capital flows into EM can hold up if rising rates do not come as a large surprise (as in 1994) and coincide with a robust outlook for global, and thus EM,...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging market crisis series – India – corporate vulnerability spreading to banks

Nov 11, 2015 11:49 am UTC| Insights & Views

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan, who is an eminent economist, known as Paul Volcker of India (inflation slayer) and among the few who has warned on 2008/09 financial crisis upfront, has been shouting...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging market crisis series – EM central banks need to curb FX volatility

Oct 06, 2015 14:34 pm UTC| Insights & Views

Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has taken up the right approach to curb volatility on the both side, and inform the market of his approach, while declaring that any fixed value of exchange rate is not...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging market crisis series – risks of elevated leverage among corporates

Sep 22, 2015 09:07 am UTC| Insights & Views

As investors ask the critical question,where might the next crisis come from?The answer is usually the same Emerging markets and China. Why is that so? Is it because commodities are down or US dollar is stronger than...