Market Roundup
- US Durable Goods May -1.8%, (consensus -0.6%, previous -1.5%)
- US Non-def Cap Ex-Air May 0.4%, (consensus 0.5%, previous -0.3%)
- US New Home Sales-Units MM May 0.546m, (consensus 0.525m, previous 0.534m)
- US New Home Sales Chg MM May 2.2%, (previous 8.1%)
- United States June markit mfg PMI flash decrease to 53.4 (consensus 54.2, previous 54.0)
- U.S. economy on track to grow 2.0 pct in Q2 after home sales data, +1.9 pct June 16 - Atlanta Fed' GDP-now model
- Feds Powell strong USD weighing on exports & growth, could see rate hike as soon as Sept, current f/c is for 2 hikes one in Sept & one in Dec
- Powell says does not see a financial bubble in the making, or excessive leverage in markets right now
- US Treasury's Lew critical China continue to move to more mkt-determined exchange rate
- Greek PM to meet Juncker, ECB's Draghi, IMF's Lagarde on Wednesday (PM's Office)
- Greek negotiator Tsakalotos says I believe we are closer to deal than ever
- Bank of England'S Martin Weale says prepare for uk rate rise- FT
- Martin Weale to FT- "Not changing rates ever would have worse effects than adjusting interest rates to fit the economic circumstances"
- Poland'S C.Banker Chojna-Duch says Poland has possibility to intervene on FX market, for now does not see such need
- Germany's Gabriel will see if Greek proposals are sufficient, if not we'll have to keep talking
- No Significant Data
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan: Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of May policy meeting
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Fading optimism on an imminent Greece-EU deal weighing on Euro. Selling pressure gathered further pace during the European morning dragging the single currency sharply down. Higher Bund yields and upbeat manufacturing and services PMIs in the eurozone were unable to curb the downside trend. Hawkish tone by Fed's Powell gave extra legs to the greenback further accentuating the offered tone in the pair. EUR/USD seems to have found some respite around the 1.1160 region, where EUR/USD is now trying to consolidate. Currently the pair is down 1.56% at 1.1162. Next support at 1.1135 (low Jun 23) followed by 1.1087 (low Jun 8) and then 1.1049 (low Jun 5). Resistances are seen at 1.1349 (high Jun 23) then 1.1404 (high Jun 22) and finally 1.1421 (high Jun 18). Option expiries for Wednesday 24 June: 1.1130-40 (624M), 1.1180 (395M), 1.1200 (1.2BLN)
AUD/USD trading under pressure amid USD strength. AUD's recovery from a 6-day low of 0.7680 against the US Dollar was capped at 0.7750. The pair is now back at 0.7729, having posted a daily high at 0.7750 and low at 0.7679. Above 0.7750, AUD/USD will find resistances at 0.7777, 0.7800 and 0.7850. To the downside, supports are at 0.7700, 0.7680 and 0.7640. Option expiries for Wednesday 24 June: 0.7820 (220M)
EUR/CHF: European currencies failed to benefit from risk appetite. After peaking at 1.0473 below Monday's highs, EUR/CHF bottomed during the American session at 1.0424. Despite good EZ Manufacturing PMI and amid hopes of a Greece deal ahead of tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting, Euro was unable to rise against the Swiss Franc. The pair continues to move sideways hovering around 1.0438, modestly lower for the day.
USD/JPY bulls have been picking up the pace. The pair is trading at 123.90 with a high of 124.19 and a low of 123.33. Another Eurogroup meeting tomorrow as Greece negotiations continue but with a positive tone. EZ finance ministers could approve a cash for reform deal as early as tomorrow and markets await the outcome of the Eurogroup's meeting. Supports for the pair are located at 121.90/00 and then 120.00. Major resistance comes as 124.10/15. Option expiries for Wednesday 24 June: 123.50 (280M), 123.90-124.00 (282M), 125.00 (232M)
GBP/USD: DXY is rallying over 95.00 on broad USD strength, weighing on the pound Sterling. Cable down over 100 pips in the American session and is now testing the 200-hour MA of 1.5710. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5715, down 0.68% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5835 and low at 1.5709. Below the 1.5710 level, it will find supports at 1.5680, 1.5650 and 1.5620. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5760, 1.5810 and then 1.5900.
