Market Roundup
- Obama to sign U.S. budget bill as early as Monday - White House.
- US Sept personal income & spending rise 0.1 pct vs 0.2% forecast.
- US Sept cons spending posts smallest rise in eight months, +0.1% vs 0.4% in Aug.
- US Chicago PMI ends contraction with surprise jump; rises to 56.2 above forecast at 49.
- Fed Atlanta's GDPnow sees Q3 GDP at 1.1%, Q4 on track for 2.5% growth.
- Stocks inch lower, still track to best month in 4 years.
- Copper touches new 3-week low as oversupply weighs.
- Fed's Williams says low neutral interest rates a "warning sign.
- Fed's George sees 2015 economic growth staying in line with trend.
- Fed Funds Futures traders see even chances on US Dec rate hike.
- Euro zone inflation zero in Oct, pressure on for more ECB easing.
- EM Stocks head for best month since April, Turkey, China in focus.
- OPEC oil output falls 120,000 bpd in October - survey.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
- 01:00 China NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Oct 53.4-previous
- 01:00 China NBS Manufacturing PMI*Oct forecast 50, 49.8-previous
- 22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index Oct 52.1-previous
- 23:30 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge Oct 0.30%-previous
- 00:30 Australia Building Approvals* Sep forecast 2%, -6.90%-previous
- 00:30 Australia Private House Approvals*Sep 4.90%-previous
- 01:35 Japan Nikkei Mfg PMI Oct 52.5-previous
- 01:45 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Oct forecast 47.5, 47.2-previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
- No Significant Events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.0980and currently trading at 1.0002 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1071 and hit lows at 1.0986 levels. The dollar slipped lower against euro on Friday, reducing this week's earlier gains, as traders favored commodity-linked currencies booked profits on gains tied to the U.S. Federal Reserve's unexpected hint it may raise rates in December. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.3 percent to 96.995. For October, the dollar was up 0.6 percent, for its second straight monthly gain. The U.S. dollar struggled after data showed U.S. consumer spending in September posted its smallest gain in eight months while inflation remained stalled. The U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose only 0.1 percent in September, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand and arguing against a rate increase in the next seven weeks. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1022. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.0987 levels.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.5274 levels and currently trading at 1.5428 levels. It reached session high at 1.5464 and dropped to session low at 1.5334 levels. Sterling edged higher against a dollar on Friday, bolstered by expectations that British interest rates may hiked by BoE faster than previously anticipated. That view grew after the Federal Reserve earlier this week signalled it may raise rates in December. Investors have brought forward expectations of a first rate increase by the Bank of England to the third quarter of 2016, after pricing in a chance of a move in the fourth quarter at the start of the week. Against the dollar, sterling was up 0.5 percent at $1.5390, with the greenback struggling after data showed U.S. inflation was still rather muted. Attention will now be on the BoE's quarterly Inflation Report, which will be released on Thursday along with a rate decision and the minutes from the latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. The BoE has said it does not need to wait for the Fed before it raises rates. But many investors reckon it would not risk going first. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.547. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.5400 levels.
USD/JPY is supported around 120.00 levels and currently trading at 120.64 levels. It has hit session high at 120.76 and made session lows at 120.36 levels. The yen rose against dollar on Friday, in the wake of Bank of Japan's decision to leave monetary policy unchanged, despite rate cuts from China and easing signals from the ECB. The dollar slipped 0.4 percent at 120.66 yen, while the euro fell 0.2 percent to 132.69 yen.The greenback fell as low as 120.29 yen after the BoJ announcement, before reversing course radically on a report by the Nikkei newspaper that Japan's government is considering adding a 3 trillion yen ($24.77 billion) extra budget in preparation for the trans-Pacific trade pact. The Fed indicated after a two-day policy meeting this week that a December rate rise is still on the table, curbing talk that a run of downbeat economic data and worries about the global economy would push a hike back to 2016. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 120.56. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 120.71 levels.
USD/CAD is supported at 1.3040 levels and is trading at 1.3065 levels. It has made session high at 1.3083 and lows at 1.3053 levels. The Canadian dollar strengthened sharply against a broadly weaker U.S. currency on Friday, touching its strongest level in a week as traders rebalanced their books at the end of the fiscal year for Canadian banks. The loonie, as Canada's currency is colloquially known, has gained steadily over the last three days in part on crude oil price gains. It added 0.7 percent for the week and 2 percent over the course of October. The Canadian dollar moved in a wide range, as weak as C$1.3193 and as strong as C$1.3056, its strongest point since Oct. are torn between those who expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates later this year and those who feel economic weakness will force them to delay the first hike until the data front, The Canadian economy grew in August for the third straight month after contracting in the first five months of the year, with oil and gas continuing to recover and manufacturing also making a contribution, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Gross domestic product showed an inflation-adjusted increase of 0.1 percent, similar figures of analysts forecast, following more substantial boosts of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent in June and July, respectively. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3100. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.3040 levels.
Equities Recap
European stocks recorded their best month in more than six years on Friday, buoyed by gains at carmaker Renault and planemaker Airbus while investors also banked on more monetary stimulus for the region.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.8 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.2 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.2 percent, France's CAC finished the day down by 0.1 percent.
U.S. stock indexes finished with their strongest monthly performances in four years on Friday, even as they dipped for the day amid a mixed bag of earnings reports.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.52 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.47 percent Nasdaq finished the day down 0.39 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasuries prices rose on Friday, with benchmark yields retreating from one-month peaks as soft domestic and overseas data renewed traders' outlook on tepid global growth and month-end buying boosted longer-dated Treasuries prices.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 7/32 in price to yield 2.146 percent, down over 2 basis points from Thursday.
The 30-year bond gained 23/32 in price with a yield of 2.927 percent, down nearly 4 basis points on the day.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Friday, finishing higher for the week and month as well, after another decline in the U.S. oil rig count indicated domestic crude production could fall in coming months.
Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 76 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $49.56 a barrel. It rose 3 percent on the week and 2 percent for October.
U.S. crude futures rose by 53 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $46.56, gaining 3 percent on the week and 4 percent on the month.
Gold fell to a three-week low on Friday, extending two days of losses and heading for its biggest weekly drop since August on the chance the U.S. Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates this year.
Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,141.36 an ounce at 3:23 p.m. EDT (1923 GMT), after slipping to its lowest since Oct. 9 at $1,139.11, just above the 100-day moving average. It was on track to close October up 2.4 percent.
U.S. gold for December delivery settled down 0.5 percent at $1,141.40 an ounce.
