Market Roundup
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug) -0.3%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, -0.3% previous
•US Chicago PMI (Oct) 43.8 forecast,42.3forecast,40.6 previous
•Canada Budget Balance (Aug) -3.28B, -1.51B previous
•Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Aug) -11.07B , -7.79B previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 414, 420 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 546, 550 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data ahead
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower against dollar on Friday a hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials continued to support the US dollar. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid both opposed this week’s rate cut, citing resilient labor markets and persistent inflation.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she would not have supported the cut, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic backed the move but stressed that further easing would require more progress on inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that another rate cut in December is unlikely, tempering market expectations.On the data front, Euro zone inflation slowed a touch in October and continued to hover near the European Central Bank's 2% target, confirming the bank's message that the economy remains on the relatively benign path it projected earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1614(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1688(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1521(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1498(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound extended its losing streak against the U.S. dollar on Friday as growing investor concerns over the outlook for the UK’s public finances weighed on sentiment. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who faces political pressure over a rental dispute, is set to present her budget in late November. Reeves has limited fiscal room to manoeuvre under her own budget rules, constraining her ability to maintain Britain’s financial stability. Rising expectations suggest she may be forced to break election pledges and raise taxes, as new forecasts indicate a weaker economic outlook. Meanwhile, money markets are pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England at next week’s policy meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3288(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3119(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3054(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, extending its monthly decline after data showed a surprise contraction in the domestic economy for August. Canada’s GDP fell 0.3% in August, following an upwardly revised 0.3% expansion in July, defying analyst expectations for flat growth. An advance estimate suggested the economy may have grown 0.1% in September, potentially allowing Canada to narrowly avoid a recession in the third quarter. Meanwhile, oil prices—one of Canada’s key exportsrose 0.6% to $60.96 per barrel, offering limited support to the loonie.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.4020 per U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.3980 to 1.4035. For October, the loonie was down 0.7%, its second straight monthly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4070(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4106(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3969(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3896(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as yen firmed after Japan's new finance minister said the government has been monitoring foreign exchange movements with a high sense of urgency, but was still heading for its weakest monthly performance against the dollar since July.The Japanese currency has had a tumultuous week that included a brief but powerful rally, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a few swipes at the Bank of Japan for not raising rates quickly enough, only for BOJ policymakers to then keep policy unchanged, as had been widely expected.The yen has lost 4% against the dollar in October, its worst monthly performance since July, and has hit a record low against the euro .Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European equities edged lower on Friday as investors digested mixed quarterly earnings and a subdued euro zone inflation report, which reinforced the European Central Bank’s view that price pressures remain contained.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.67percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.44 percent.
Wall Street’s main indexes ended higher on Friday, lifted by Amazon’s strong earnings outlook, though gains were capped by concerns over the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
Dow Jones closed up at 0.09% percent, S&P 500 closed up at 0.26 % percent, Nasdaq closed up at 0.61% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped 1% on Friday amid uncertainty over another Fed rate cut this year, though the metal remained on track for a third consecutive monthly gain.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,001.74 per ounce at 1:49 p.m. ET (1749 GMT) and was on track for a 3.7% gain this month.
Oil prices settled slightly higher after a volatile session on Friday, briefly jumping on media reports suggesting that U.S. air strikes on Venezuela could begin within hours, before retreating when President Donald Trump denied the claims on social media.
Brent crude futures settled at $65.07 a barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $60.98 a barrel, up 41 cents, or 0.68%.
