Market Roundup
• US CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) -13.1%, -5.6% forecast, 15.7% previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Dec) 324.05, 324.12 forecast, 324.12 previous
•US Core CPI Index (Dec) 331.86, 331.07 forecast, 331.07 previous
•US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Dec) -0.02%, 0.25% forecast, 0.25% previous
•US CPI Index, s.a (Dec) 326.03, 325.03 forecast, 325.03 previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Dec) -0.3%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 5.7%, 7.1% forecast, 7.1% previous
•US New Home Sales (Sep) 738K, 711K forecast, 711K previous
•US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 3.8%, 11.3% forecast, 11.3% previous
•US New Home Sales (Oct) 737K, 716K forecast, 738K previous
•US New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.1%, 3.8% forecast, 3.8% previous
•US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan) 47.2, 48.2 forecast, 47.9 previous
•US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US 30-Year Bond Auction 4.825%, 4.773% forecast, 4.773% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov) 15.2% forecast, -6.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Nov) 20.2% forecast, -1.8% previous
•00:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Nov) 1.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
•03:00 China Trade Balance (USD) (Dec) 114.30B forecast, 111.68B previous
•03:00 China Exports (YoY) (Dec) 3.0% forecast, 5.9% previous
•03:00 China Imports (YoY) (Dec) 0.9% forecast, 1.9% previous
•03:00 China Exports (Dec) 5.70M previous
•03:00 China Imports (Dec) 1.70M previous
Looking Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. CPI data came in line with estimates, firming up expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold later this month despite unprecedented pressure from the White House to lower interest rates. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.3% at 99.18, retracing losses from Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a criminal indictment.The print cemented expectations the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged this month, with Fed funds futures currently pricing an implied 95.6% probability that the U.S. central bank will remain on hold when its next two-day meeting concludes on 28 January, unchanged from a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1623(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1601(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Tuesday as investors assessed simmering geopolitical tensions and a key U.S. inflation report.U.S. President Donald Trump's proposals to cap credit card interest rates and impose a 25% tariff rate on any country that does business with Iran, along with his attacks on Federal Reserve independence, added to market uncertainty, keeping investors cautious.Expensive food and rent lifted the Consumer Price Index 0.3% last month for an annual gain of 2.7%. Core CPI rose 0.2% in December. The readings came in line with expectations and bolstered bets the Federal Reserve had more room to cut. Sterling weakened 0.23% to $1.3428. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3463(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3382(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3334(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as a downturn in stocks and recent widening of yield spreads weighed on the commodity-linked risk-sensitive currency. U.S. stock indexes fell despite an expected increase in inflation that kept bets alive for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, while the safe-haven U.S. dollar , opens new tab posted gains against a basket of major currencies.U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranians to keep protesting and said help was on the way, without giving details, as Iran's clerical establishment pressed its crackdown against the biggest demonstrations in years.Iran, like Canada, is a major oil producer. U.S. crude oil futures were up 3% at $61.26 a barrel on concerns about potential supply disruptions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3918 (Jan 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3974 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3871(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3786(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar climbed to a one-and-a-half-year high against the yen on Tuesday as the Japanese currency remained under pressure amid reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election. Political uncertainty intensified after a coalition partner suggested the possibility of a snap election on February 8 or 15.Japan’s finance minister said she and the U.S. Treasury secretary share concerns over the yen’s one-sided weakness, signalling that Tokyo may intervene to stem the currency’s decline. Her comments underscore growing unease in Japan as the yen slid past 158 per dollar for the first time in about a year following reports of a potential February election.Broader markets remain focused on geopolitical risks, including possible U.S. action in Iran, developments related to Greenland, and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs due on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.30(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.69(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 157.01 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Tuesday, led by declines in construction stocks, while investors also assessed a series of mixed corporate updates and a U.S. inflation report.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.14 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, dragged down by financial shares, as remarks from JPMorgan executives heightened concerns over President Donald Trump’s recent proposal to cap credit‑card rates.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.80 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.20 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.10% percent
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged by more than 2% on Tuesday as the prospect of disruptions to Iranian crude exports overshadowed possible increased supply from Venezuela.
Brent futures jumped by $1.60, or 2.5%, to settle at $65.47. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $61.15 a barrel, climbing $1.65, or about 2.8%.
Gold surged to a record high on Tuesday, fueled by U.S. inflation data that reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties boosted safe-haven demand. Silver also reached a new peak.
Spot gold steadied at$4,591.49 per ounce as of 01:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT), following a record high of $4,634.33 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for February settled0.3% lower at$4,599.10.
