- Greece offers new proposals ahead of emergency summit.
- Creditors offer Greece six-month bailout reprieve as Tsipras weighs response.
- Washington fears losing Greece to Moscow.
- IMM specs ditched chunk of USD longs before FOMC to lowest in 11-months, JPY shorts down large, EUR shorts plummet, more than halved form 2-weeks ago.
- US May business borrowing for new equipment +1% at $7.1 bln, volume -13% y/y.
- New Zealand Q2 consumer confidence index 113.0, Q1 117.4, still well above 100.
- New Zealand posts record annual migration in May.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May Chicago Fed national activity index; last -0.15.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Euro Zone June consumer confidence index - flash, -5.8 eyed; last -4.6.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May existing home sales, 5.26 mln AR, +4.4% eyed; last 5.04 mln, -3.3%.
Key Events Ahead
- China closed for Dragon Boad Festival.
- N/A BOJ Mori speech in London, Riksbank executive board meeting.
- N/A France 3/6/12-month BTF treasury note auctions.
- (0100 ET/0500 GMT) ECB Coeure speech at Paris event.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) ECB ELA meeting, Denmark CB quarterly economic review release.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Ex-ECB Trichet speech at Vienna seminar.
- (0630 ET/1030 GMT) Euro Group ministerial meeting.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) Belgium E2-2.8 bln 3.75/0.8/3.75% 2020/25/45 OLO auctions.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Euro Zone Summit on Greece.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported around 1.1400 levels and currently trading at 1.1394 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1394 and low at 1.1356 levels. The euro had a strong start to the new week, in signs that investors are confident top-level European officials will be able to reach a compromise with Greece over its debt at an emergency summit later today. Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will meet with head officials from the IMF, the European Council, the European Central Bank, the Euro group, and the EU Commission later on Monday to try and thrash out a deal at an emergency summit which was arranged late last week following weeks of broken-down talks. Initial support is seen around 1.1297 and resistance is seen around 1.1437 levels.
USD/JPY is supported below 123.00 levels and posted a high of 122.96 levels. It has made intraday low at 122.55 and currently trading at 122.70 levels. Pair also remains pressured on a broadly weaker US dollar largely undermined by rising EUR/USD on Greece hopes. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 122.10 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5900 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5903 and low at 1.5866 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5901 levels. The British Pound surged to a fresh year high of 1.5929 against the greenback last week, holding to its gains by the week close and trading a few pips below it. Pair has closed in the green for 10 days in-a-row, boosted by positive local data, and the fact that the UK has distanced from Europe and the Greek issue. A weaker dollar has also supported the bullish case of the Pound. Initial support is seen at 1.5744 and resistance is seen around 1.5939 levels.
USD/CHF is supported below 0.9200 levels and trading at 0.9165 levels and made intraday low at 0.9160 and high at 0.9185 levels. Market is trading flat after SNB maintained its policy of negative interest rates and penalties for holding Swiss francs in cash. Today is data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9113 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9289 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7800 levels and trading at 0.7778 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7787 levels and low at 0.7759 levels. Pair struggles above the pivot while RBA Board member Edwards recently said AUD is still too high. Meanwhile, there is very little fundamentals at the start of this week to run with except the main headlines that will focus on Greece as well as the continued downside risks to the greenback post the recently presented statement from the FOMC. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels.
