Market Roundup
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Oct) 3.50%, 3.50%forecast, 3.50% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00%,3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
•China House Prices (YoY) (Sep) -2.2%, -2.5% previous
•China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep) -0.5% 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•China GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1.1%,0.8% forecast, 1.0% previous
•China GDP (YoY) (Q3) 4.8%,4.7% forecast, 5.2% previous
•China Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Sep) 3.48%,3.67% previous
•China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.2%, 5.3%forecast,5.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 EU Current Account (Aug) 22.5B forecast,27.7B previous
•08:00 Current Account n.s.a. (Aug) 35.0B previous
•09:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Aug) 0.48% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as a weaker U.S. dollar offset the impact of France’s surprise credit rating downgrade. S&P Global lowered France’s rating to A+/A-1 from AA-/A-1+, citing political uncertainty that could undermine the government’s fiscal repair efforts. The downgrade followed a turbulent week in which Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu suspended the deeply unpopular 2023 pension reform and faced two no-confidence votes in parliament, highlighting the challenges of stabilizing France’s finances amid mounting political pressures. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes in parliament on Thursday, but his fledgling government had to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pension reform to secure backing from Socialist lawmakers. The euro appreciated 0.1% to $1.1665 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1678(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1753(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1641(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Monday as dovish expectations for the Bank of England continued to weigh on the currency. Last week’s disappointing UK employment data has heightened speculation that the Bank of England may continue its gradual easing of interest rates to support the economy. Analysts noted that slowing job growth and weaker wage trends suggest the labor market may not be as resilient as previously thought, potentially giving the BoE room to act. At the same time, concerns about the UK’s fiscal position ahead of the pivotal Autumn budget in November are weighing on investor sentiment. Uncertainties over government spending plans, borrowing requirements, and potential fiscal tightening are creating additional headwinds for the British pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3309(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar regained some ground on Monday as signs of thawing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing boosted global risk sentiment. Investor mood brightened after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that a 100% tariff on Chinese imports would be unsustainable and confirmed plans to meet with President Xi Jinping, easing fears of an escalating trade confrontation. Trump said he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that he thought things would be fine with China.Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to meet President Trump in Washington later Monday, with trade and regional security expected to feature prominently on the agenda.
. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Monday as yen weakened as Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of fiscal and monetary stimulus, appeared all but certain to become Japan's next prime minister after reportedly securing crucial political backing for the top job. The safe-haven currency was also hit by an improvement in risk appetite after trade tensions between Beijing and Washington calmed somewhat, and worries about U.S. regional banks also eased. Takaichi's bid to become Japan's first female premier had been in jeopardy after a sudden break-up with the LDP's coalition partner of 26 years, Komeito, earlier this month. However, in the right-wing JIP, Takaichi has a partner more aligned with her policy views. The U.S. dollar added 0.15% to 150.16 yen as of 07: 16GMT, following a drop of as much as 1.1% on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.30(Oct 17th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.44 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 152.15 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Nikkei jump lifts Asian markets as Japan nears a new prime minister; U.S. inflation this week unlikely to affect rate cut expectation.
Hang Seng was down 2.60% ,China’sA50 traded up 0.74% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 3.47%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Monday, supported by expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts, as investors awaited key inflation data and upcoming U.S.-China trade talks for further direction.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,259.34 per ounce, as of 0514 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.4% to $4,273 per ounce.
