Market Roundup
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Dec): 4.1%, 4.4% forecast, 4.3% previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Dec): 54.8K, -65.3K previous
•Australia Employment Change (Dec): 65.2K, 28.3K forecast, -28.7K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Dec): 66.7%, 66.8% forecast, 66.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 Belgium Consumer Confidence (Jan)-1 previous
•11:00 Greek Credit Expansion (YoY) (Oct) 7.8% previous
•11:00UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan) -35 forecast,-44 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•07:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Thursday dollar held on to overnight gains against major peers on Thursday after President Donald Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of European NATO nations, trumpeting the framework of a deal with NATO over control of Greenland.. Trump's threat to levy tariffs on allied nations opposed to his ambition to control Greenland spooked markets and triggered a broad selloff of U.S. assets, but his comment in Davos on Wednesday that he had ruled out military action offered relief.The U.S. president said he has reached a framework for a deal with NATO over Greenland, but he did not offer any details in a post to his Truth Social platform about what that would entail. As a result, though, he said he would not impose tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1732(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1806(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1701(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1666(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Thursday as risk appetite improvement after U.S. President Donald Trump stepped back from tariff threats against Europe linked to the Greenland dispute..Trump's theatrics and consequent tensions have kept markets on edge this week, prompting investors to take the latest developments with a pinch of salt even as relief was palpable. His remarks provided relief for Europe currencies, including the pound, as they ruled out an immediate flare up in trade tensions and followed comments dismissing the use of force to capture Greenland. A bouncing dollar has pushed the pound back under $1.3500 level..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3496(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3331(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit 15-month high on Thursday as strong Australian jobs data boosted RBA rate hike expectations .Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level since May last year, from 4.3%.Net employment jumped by 65,200 in December from November, when it dropped a revised 28,700. That was way above market forecasts of a 30,000 gain, while full-time jobs rebounded by 54,800. The participation rate ticked up to 66.7%, from 66.6%, while hours worked rose 0.4% to a record of over 2 billion hours.Fourth-quarter inflation figures due next Wednesday look set to make or break the case of a February hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6807(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6831(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6760(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6711SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited BoJ meeting for policy cues.The BoJ is scheduled to announce its decision on Friday and is expected to maintain the status quo after raising the overnight interest rate to 0.75%, or the highest in 30 years in December.Investors will scrutinize Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks during the post-decision press conference for cues about the timing of the next rate hike.The Bank of Japan is likely to lift its growth outlook on Friday and hint at further rate hikes as yen weakness and strong wage growth prospects fuel inflation concerns.Markets will also watch Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for policy cues, especially on how the BOJ balances curbing yen weakness while limiting further bond yield rises. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.49(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.43(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.97 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks tracked Wall Street gains after Trump’s Greenland deal remarks eased market jitters, while gold and silver declined.
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Hang Sang was up 0.10%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.76% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 0.87%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged up on Thursday after the U.S. president stepped back from threats to impose tariffs in his effort to seize Greenland, reducing the risk of a U.S.–Europe trade war and supporting the global economy and oil demand.
Brent crude was up 10 cents, or 0.15%, at $65.34 a barrel by 0225 GMT. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 for March rose 14 cents, or 0.23%, to $60.76 a barrel.
Gold retreated on Thursday as geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand eased after U.S. President Donald Trump backed down from new tariff threats and proposals to annex Greenland by force.
Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,799.79 per ounce, as of 0136 GMT, after scaling a record peak of $4,887.82 in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 0.6% to $4,806.60 per ounce.
