Market Roundup
•Australia Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.4, 47.3 previous
•Australia Services PMI (Nov) 49.6, 51.0 previous
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Oct) 0.6%, -0.3% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.3% , 2.2%forecast, 2.4% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.3%, 2.5% previous
•Japan Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.0 , 49.5 forecast, 49.2 previous
•Japan Services PMI (Nov) 50.2, 49.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:15 French S&P Global Composite PMI Nov 48.1 previous
•08:15 French Services PMI Nov 49.0 forecast 49.2 previous
•08:30 German Composite PMI Nov 48.6 previous
•08:30 German Manufacturing PMI Nov 43.1 forecast 43.0 previous
•08:30 German Services PMI Nov 51.8 forecast 51.6 previous
•09:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Nov 46.0 forecast 46.0 previous
•09:00 EU S&P Global Composite PMI Nov 50.0 previous
•09:00 EU Services PMI Nov 51.6 forecast 51.6 previous
•09:30 UK Composite PMI Nov 51.8 previous
•09:30 UK Manufacturing PMI Nov 50.1 forecast 49.9 previous
•09:30 UK Services PMI Nov 52.3 forecast 52.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•08:40 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Friday as uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts in the United States and escalating geopolitical tensions supported dollar. Putin said on Thursday it had fired a ballistic missile at Ukraine and warned of a global conflict. Recent comments from some U.S. Federal Reserve officials have indicated the central bank may slow its rate cuts, helping the dollar.Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a seven-month low, signalling resilience in the U.S. economy. The euro has been friendless and down for seven of the past eight weeks as Europe faces U.S. tariffs, slowing growth, the collapse of Germany's government and strains in France's government over its 2025 budget. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0526(5SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0550(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0462`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0403(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Friday as ongoing strength in the dollar put downward pressure pound. The gains paused earlier in the week but restarted on Wednesday due to heightened geopolitical risks and after the Federal Reserve officials signalled caution on rate cuts. The dollar index rose to a peak of 107.18, its highest in over a year, and has rallied more than 3% since Trump's victory on Nov. 5 on bets that the President-elect's policies could reignite inflation and temper the future U.S. rate cuts.Globally, markets remain on tenterhooks due to the risk of further escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict after Russia lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at a Ukrainian city. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2655(SMA 9), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2694(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian declined on Friday as investors digested geopolitical tensions and mixed Australian PMI data weighed on Australian dollar. Russia fired a missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday in response to the U.S. and UK's decisions allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western weapons. On the data front,Australia's manufacturing activity contracted for the 10th consecutive month in November, though the pace of decline slowed to its weakest rate in six months. Meanwhile, services activity slipped into contraction for the first time in ten months.. At GMT 07:30, The Aussie was trading down 0.16% at 0.6500 was set for a weekly gain of 0.80%, well off a three-month low of $0.6441. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6555(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(SMA 21).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6481(Nov 19th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as investors reacted to Japan's latest inflation data. Japan's core inflation in October remained above the central bank's 2% target, with a key index excluding fuel showing signs of acceleration. The data also highlighted continued increases in service prices, a key gauge for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to assess whether businesses are passing on higher labor costs. These factors will be closely reviewed by the BOJ at its upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19. A poll of economists reveals that 56% expect the BOJ to raise rates again in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.28(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.63(21SMA).
Equities Recap
Equity benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea advanced more than 1% on Friday as investors cheered Nvidia's solid earnings.
Taipei stocks rose 2.1%, South Korea was up by 0.84%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.84%, while Hang Seng was down 2.09%
Commodities Recap
Gold was headed for its largest weekly gain in nearly eight months on Friday and the euro hovered at a 13-month low as Russia lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at Ukraine.
Gold was steady at $2,677 an ounce and up more than 4.5% for the week
Oil prices extended gains on Friday, heading for a weekly uptick of more than 4%, as the Ukraine war intensified with Russian President Vladimir Putin warning of a global conflict.
Brent crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $74.33 a barrel by 0448 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.23 per barrel.
