Market Roundup
- German Finance Ministry: Growth to slow in Q1 after strong '14 end.
- China SAFE: China banks sell more FX to clients in March, largest since December '07, no capital flight, further CNY weakness undesirable.
- BoJ Gov Kuroda: QQE open-ended in terms of how long it will be maintained, FX impact collateral.
- BoJ DepGov Iwata: Takes time for monetary base rise to boost loans.
- MoF flow data week-ended Apr 18 - Japanese buy net Y271.1 bln foreign stocks, Y432.0 bln bonds, Y134.3 bln bills; foreign investors buy net Y595.2 bln Japanese stocks, sell Y663.9 bln bonds, buy trln bills.
- Japan April flash mfg PMI 49.7, 1st contraction in 11-mos, March final 50.3, new orders, output, even new export orders down, former too also sub-50.
- China April HSBC flash mfg PMI 49.2, lowest in year, March 49.6.
- Australia Q1 NAB business confidence index zero, conditions +2, Q4 +2, +5.
- RBNZ AsstGov McDermott: Rates stimulatory, hike not in cards, low demand-inflation could prompt ease, zero-area CPI on tradeables, NZD rise unwelcome.
- New Zealand April consumer confidence index 128.8, 3-month high, March 124.6
Economic Data Ahead
- (0200 EDT/0600 GMT) Germany GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, consensus 10.2, previous 10.0
- (0200 EDT/0600 GMT) Switzerland Trade Balance, previous 2473m
- (0245 EDT/0645 GMT) France Business Climate, consensus 100, previous 99
- (0300 EDT/0700 GMT) Spain Unemployment survey, consensus 23.6%, previous 23.7%
- (0300 EDT/0700 GMT) France Markit Manufacturing PMI, consensus 49.3, previous 48.8
- (0300 EDT/0700 GMT) France Markit Services PMI, consensus 52.5, previous 52.4
- (0300 EDT/0700 GMT) France Markit Composite PMI, previous 51.5
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI, consensus 53, previous 52.8
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Germany Markit Services PMI, consensus 55.5, previous 55.4
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Germany Markit Composite PMI, previous 55.4
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Italy Wage Inflation mm, previous 0%
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI, consensus 52.6, previous 52.2
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Eurozone Markit Services PMI, consensus 54.5, previous 54.2
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Eurozone Markit Composite PMI, consensus 54.4, previous 54
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK Retail Sales mm, previous 0.4%, consensus 0.7%
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, previous GBP 6.216
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Italy Trade Balance, previous 2.84 bln eur
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Initial Jobless Claims, previous 294k
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Continuing Jobless Claims, previous 2.268 m
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) US Markit Manufacturing PMI, previous 55.7
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US New Home Sales mm, consensus 0.523 m, previous 0.539m
- (1100 EDT/1500GMT) US Apr KC Fed composite, mfg indices; previous -4, -2.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A RBA AsstGov DeBelle in London panel discussion.
- N/A Washington, DC The Atlantic conference, various speakers.
- (0345 EDT/0745 GMT)ECB Praet speech in Berlin.
- (0800 EDT/1200 GMT)Buba Dombret speech in Riga.
- (1400 EDT/1800 GMT)Senate hearings on Treasury Wall, Fontenot nominations.
- (1405 EDT/1805 GMT)US Tsy Stegman speech at New York House View Conference.
FX Recap
USD/JPY wiped out earlier gains and turned red in Asia. It currently trades at 119.70 levels, sliding from the highs of 120.08 levels posted earlier in the session. Upcoming U.S. unemployment data will provide further direction. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 120.19 (April 14 High) levels and a break above could see it testing 120.45 (April 7 High) levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 119.63 (20-DMA) and then at 119.54 (5-DMA) levels.
AUD/USD trades slightly higher than yesterday's close at 0.7753 levels, recovering from the low of 0.7718 levels posted in the Asian session. The pair is pressured by weak Chinese HSBC Manufacturing data, along with Australian business confidence which fell to 0 in the first quarter of 2015, from 2 seen in final quarter of 2014. A break below 0.77 levels could push it to 0.7675 levels, which a break above 0.7840 levels, would expose 0.7888 levels and further 0.7938 levels.
NZD/USD met with strong selling interest in Asia and broke below the 0.7600 barrier. It currently trades at 0.7581 levels, down from a high of 0.7664 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.7605 levels, above which gains could be extended to 0.7640 levels. On the other hand, support is likely to be found at 0.7575 levels, below which losses could be extended to 0.7530 levels.
GBP/USD rose to a fresh 6-week high of 1.5078 post the release of the Bank of England meeting minutes. It is trying to hold above the 1.50 mark and currently trades at 1.5033 levels. UK retail sales to be released today, along with UK jobless claims figures will provide fresh directions for the pair. The pair has resistance at 1.5050 levels, and a break above could see the pair testing 1.5104 (100-DMA), while support is seen at 1.5 and then at 1.4964 levels.
EUR/USD continued moving down in Asia and currently trades at 1.0703 levels, with a high of 1.0726 and low of 1.0609 levels posted so far. Overall bias stays with the bears and markets now focus on Eurozone PMIs scheduled later in the day for further cues on the pair. On the topside, resistance is seen at 1.0800 levels, above which it could extend its gains to 1.0825 (April 21 High) levels. On the reverse side, support is located at 1.0700 and then at 1.0658 (April 21 Low) levels.
