Market Roundup
• Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Dec) -0.5% , -1.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan)-5.1 forecast, -6.2 previous
•10:30 German 12-Month Bubill Auction 2.029% previous
•10:30 German 6-Month Bubill Auction -0.623% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as dollar weakened as U.S. prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, adding to tensions with the Trump administration. Financial markets are preparing for a busy data calendar this week, with Tuesday's release of the U.S. consumer price index for December providing one of the last key economic releases before the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting at the end of January. The dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last 0.3% lower at 98.899, snapping a five-day winning streak The euro was last 0.2% stronger at $1.1656, rebounding from a one-month low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1623(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1601(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Monday as traders assessed the implications of a criminal probe into U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the U.S. dollar and monetary policy. Markets began trade on Monday with the bombshell that the Trump administration had threatened to indict Powell over Congressional testimony he gave last summer about a Fed building renovation project. Powell says it's a "pretext" to gain more influence over the central bank and monetary policy. The developments amount to a dramatic escalation in the fight between Powell and U.S. President Donald Trump, which dates back to the banker's first years as chair in 2018.The British pound nudged up 0.2% at $1.3433, rebounding from a one-month low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3469(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3559(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3355(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3342(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Monday as renewed worries about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence weighed on the dollar. Investors were spooked after Powell said the Trump administration had sought to intimidate him with criminal charges and subpoenas, calling it a tactic to force the Fed to ease monetary policy.On the data front, Australian household spending rose strongly for a second straight month in November, boosted by Black Friday discounts, concerts and sporting events, signalling growing economic momentum.ABS data showed the Monthly Household Spending Indicator rose 1.0% in November to A$79.4 billion ($53.17 billion), following a revised 1.4% surge in October. Separate data showed, ANZ Job Advertisements fell 0.5% in December, after a downwardly revised 1.5% decline in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6712(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6754(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6678(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6654(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Monday as renewed Japanese political tensions weighed yen. Uncertainty on the political front grew after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s coalition ally floated the possibility of a snap election on February 8 or 15.A snap election would be conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s first encounter with voters, offering Japan’s first woman leader an opportunity to leverage the high public support she has enjoyed since October.Takaichi said she had directed ministers to ensure timely rollout of the current fiscal year’s supplementary budget and win parliamentary backing for the budget of the coming fiscal year, underscoring her push for heavy spending. Attention now turns to a batch of economic reports due this week, including the current account, machine tool orders, producer inflation and business sentiment surveys. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.12(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.42(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.01 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Most Asian shares rose at the start of the week as Chinese AI stocks rallied on sector optimism, even as broader markets remained cautious amid growing global risks.
China’s A50 up 0.01%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.61% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 0.84%
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed above $4,600/oz on Monday for the first time, while silver notched a record, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Spot gold jumped 1.4% to $4,572.36 per ounce by 0619 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $4,600.33 earlier in the day.U.S. gold futures for February delivery firmed 1.8% to $4,583.20.
Oil prices saw modest gains on Monday as protests in Iran stoked fears over OPEC supply risks, while expectations of ample supply and potential Venezuelan export resumption restrained advances.
Brent crude futures climbed 5 cents to $63.39 a barrel by 0433 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.16 a barrel, up 4 cents.
