Market Roundup
•Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.1% ,2.1%forecast,2.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 Sweden Trade Balance (Sep) -8.90B previous
• 08:00 GfK German Consumer Climate (Nov) -22.0 forecast,-22.3 previous
•09:00 Italian Business Confidence (Oct) 87.3 previous
•09:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Oct) 96.8 previous
•11:00 France Jobseekers Total (Sep) 3,021.8K previous
•11:00 Irish GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% previous
•11:00 Irish GDP (YoY) (Q3) 17.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose against the dollar on Monday as investors awaited a series of major central bank meetings expected to result in a U.S. rate cut, while keeping a close watch on President Donald Trump’s Asia tour for signs of a trade breakthrough with China.Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials have reportedly reached a framework for a trade deal, setting the stage for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to review the agreement when they meet Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea.Market attention is also on the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell for signals on future rate cuts, particularly as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown limits the availability of economic data. Traders are currently pricing in another rate reduction in December.In Europe, the European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday as optimism over easing global trade tensions boosted risk appetite. The spotlight will be on the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. "I've got a lot of respect for President Xi and I think we're going to come away with a deal," Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in Tokyo.Chinese officials have so far been circumspect about trade talks with U.S. counterparts and have said little on the potential outcome. Focus will also be on whether the central bank and Fed Chair Jerome Powell provide clarity on further rate cuts as the U.S. government shutdown continues, leaving policymakers without economic data. Traders are pricing in another cut in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Tuesday, supported by optimism over progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations that boosted risk sentiment. U.S. officials said senior negotiators from both countries had agreed on a framework for a potential deal, paving the way for a meeting between President Trump and President Xi on Thursday.Additional support for the Aussie came from comments by RBA Governor Michele Bullock on inflation, which traders interpreted as signaling a cautious stance ahead of the release of Australia’s Q3 CPI data. The upcoming Q3 trimmed mean CPI, due at 0030 GMT on Wednesday, is expected to increase by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 2.7% year-on-year.Markets now see around a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the RBA’s 3.6% cash rate at the November 4 meeting, down from 60% earlier on Monday, while one rate cut remains fully priced in by February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6576(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.671(Oct 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6445(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Tuesday as the yen strengthened ahead of this week’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are now turning their attention to the BOJ’s policy decision due on Thursday.Two hawkish Policy Board members, Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata, have recently called for raising the policy rate to 0.75% from the current 0.5%. The BOJ ended its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in 2024 and has since implemented two rate hikes by January, amid growing political pressure to curb the yen’s sharp depreciation.Markets broadly expect the BOJ to hold its policy rate at 0.5% this week, while awaiting further clarity on the new administration’s policy direction before factoring in a possible move to 0.75%... Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian equities took a breather on Tuesday following solid gains, as optimism over easing trade tensions underpinned risk sentiment and investors awaited a series of heavyweight tech earnings reports..
Hang Seng was down 0.55% ,China’sA50 traded was down 0.35% ,Japan’s Nikkei was down 2.54%
Commodities Recap
The yellow metal extended its decline to a near three-week trough on Tuesday, pressured by improving risk sentiment driven by hopes of a U.S.–China trade deal and ahead of several major central bank announcements.
Spot gold was down 1% at $3,941.65 per ounce, as of 0652 GMT, hitting its lowest level since October 10.U.S. gold futures for December delivery lost 1.5% to $3,957.50 per ounce.
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade deal was tempered by OPEC’s plans to increase output and investor concerns over the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude futures fell 3 cents to $65.59 a barrel at 0359 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 5 cents at $61.26.
