Market Roundup
• China Exports (Sep) 8.40M, 4.80M previous
• China Imports (Sep) 7.50M, 1.70M previous
• China Trade Balance (Sep) 645.47B, 710.00B forecast, 732.70B previous
• China Exports (YoY) (Sep) 8.3%, 6.0% forecast, 4.4% previous
• China Imports (YoY) (Sep) 7.4%,1.5% forecast ,1.3% previous
• China Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) 90.45B,98.50B forecast, 102.33B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:30 German 12-Month Bubill Auction 1.938% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 10:00 US IMF Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped slightly on Monday following the announcement of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s new cabinet, which retained Roland Lescure, a close ally of President Macron, as finance minister. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings run throughout the week, with G20 finance chiefs meeting midweek. Egypt hosts an international summit on Monday to finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal. In the U.S., Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, will comment on the economy, and the Fed’s Beige Book is due Wednesday. Monday is the Columbus Day holiday. The eurozone data calendar is light, with industrial production, trade, final September HICP, and Germany’s ZEW survey scheduled. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in a debate on the global economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1663(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1538(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Monday on relief that U.S. President Donald Trump may not follow through on his threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. On Friday, Trump had posted on Truth Social that he would impose tariffs starting November 1 in retaliation for Beijing’s restrictions on critical rare earth exports, triggering sharp sell-offs on Wall Street, in bitcoin. By Monday, investors regained some confidence after signs that Trump had softened his stance . Looking ahead, the UK releases key economic data this week, including August jobs figures on Tuesday, followed by GDP, services, industrial and manufacturing output, trade, and construction output on Thursday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Washington on Tuesday, amid a busy schedule of BoE official engagements. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3368(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3442(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3226(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar regained some ground on Monday as investors digested the latest salvoes in the U.S.-China trade war were more symbolic than substantive. Australian dollar had crumbled on Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap 100% tariffs on China by November 1 .Despite the tariff rhetoric, Trump’s softer stance on China over the weekend gave analysts confidence that the move was tactical and that a middle ground might be reached. Currencies from Australia and New Zealand, backed by commodity-driven economies, typically serve as risk hedges when global markets face turbulence.Looking ahead, traders await the RBA’s September meeting minutes on Tuesday and Australia’s September employment report on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as easing US-China trade tensions dampened safe-haven demand. The yen advanced over 1% on Friday as markets reacted to Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1.Following his threat of 100% tariffs on China from November 1, Trump took a softer tone over the weekend, stating that everything would be fine and the U.S. did not wish to “hurt” China.On Sunday, Beijing defended its restrictions on rare earth exports and related equipment as a response to U.S. actions, while refraining from introducing new tariffs on American goods. In Japan, Monday is a holiday, but political developments remain in focus following a split in the ruling coalition. Key economic events this week include machinery orders and speeches from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and BOJ Board Member Naoki Tamura on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.45(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.071 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.92 (50%fib).
EquitiesRecap
Asian equities fell sharply on Monday amid fresh trade war fears, while Wall Street futures indicated a partial rebound in risk appetite.
Hang Seng was down 1.76% ,China’sA50 traded down 0.50% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.01 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to a record high on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, while silver also reached an all-time peak.
Spot gold was up 1.5% at $4,067.79 per ounce, as of 0700 GMT, after having hit an all-time high of $4,078.05 earlier in the session.
Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, fueled by hopes that potential U.S.-China presidential talks could ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies and oil consumers.
Brent crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.47%, to $63.65 a barrel by 0622 GMT after settling down 3.82% on Friday at the lowest since May 7.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.79 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.51%, following a 4.24% loss on Friday to its lowest since May 7.
