USD/JPY nears 162.00 as Japan holds back on FX intervention 
Market Roundup
• Australia AIG Construction Index (Jun): -38.1, -11.2 previous.
• Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Jun): -16.8, -21.3 previous.
• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 51.5, 51.2 forecast, 50.7 previous.
• Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q2): 11.5%, 3.3% previous.
• Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2): 22, 16 forecast, 17 previous.
• Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2): 37, 36 forecast, 36 previous.
• Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2): 17, 13 forecast, 14 previous.
• Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q2): -8.3%, -8.1% previous.
• Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Index (Q2): 9, 4 forecast, 7 previous.
• Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2): 15, 16 previous.
• Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2): 28, 30 forecast, 29 previous.
• Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2): 2, 4 previous.
• Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2): 8, 8 previous.
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (May): -1.1%, 0.5% forecast, -0.2% previous.
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (May): 5.30%, 10.90% previous.
• Australia Private House Approvals (May): 2.8%, -1.0% previous.
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 51.7, 51.9 forecast, 51.8 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 53.1 forecast, 53.9 previous.
•10:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.0% forecast, 3.2% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.5% forecast, 2.6% forecast.
•10:00 Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.1% previous
•10:00 Eurozone CPI, n.s.a. (Jun): 103.13 previous
•10:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jun): 2.3% previous
•10:00 Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% previous
•10:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 11:15 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower as U.S. dollar remained firm supported by rising Treasury yields and likely aided by month-end portfolio rebalancing. Investors are now focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report, with expectations for Federal Reserve policy and broader market sentiment hinging on the strength of the labor market data and other key economic indicators. Inflation data for the European Union due later are forecast to show a dip to 3.0% in May, from 3.2% the previous month, and a further decline is likely as lower oil prices feed through.Investors no longer think a July rate rise is likely from the ECB, putting the chance at just 32%. Indeed, markets imply that one further hike to 2.5% could mark the end of this tightening cycle. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1510(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1283(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as the greenback remained firm, supported by rising Treasury yields and likely boosted by month-end portfolio rebalancing .Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Tuesday it remains possible that she'll advocate for higher interest rates if inflation pressures fail to ease, underscoring a still-hawkish policy outlook.Traders are pricing in roughly a 67% chance of a rate hike for September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, reflecting firming expectations of tighter monetary policy. Investors now await the June ADP employment data, due later in the day, and nonfarm payroll figures on Thursday for further clues on Fed's rate path, which could shape near-term moves in bullion.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3276(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3316(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3151(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3122(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian drifted lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar remained firm as markets continuing to price in the possibility of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Futures narrowed the odds on rate hikes from the Federal Reserve ahead of crucial jobs figures on Thursday. A move in September is almost fully priced in.Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated after Iran reiterated that it will not hold talks with U.S. officials in Doha, limiting gains in commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar.Investors are now turning their attention to Thursday's U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls report, with economists expecting the economy to have added 110,000 jobs. The employment data is likely to influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's June meeting revealed that policymakers continued to view inflation risks as skewed to the upside and stood ready to tighten monetary policy further if warranted. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6934(June 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6856(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6813(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar extended gains on Wednesday as strong buying interest kept the pair well supported. Market participants appear to be placing less weight on repeated warnings from Japanese authorities about potential currency intervention. The absence of any immediate action from Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) has encouraged traders to push the pair closer to the psychologically important 163.00 level, with intervention threats increasingly failing to deter bullish momentum. Japanese authorities may wait until after the release of key U.S. employment data before deciding whether to step into the market, allowing them to assess the impact of the figures on U.S. interest rate expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 161.81(July30th low) a break below could take the pair towards 161.31(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets began the new quarter on a cautious note Wednesday as talks between the United States and Iran encountered fresh hurdles.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.60% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 2.04%, China A50 was down at 1.15%
Commodities Recap
Gold fell 1% on Wednesday, hovering near a seven-month low touched in the previous session, as higher U.S. Treasury yields weighed on bullion.
Spot gold was down 1.1% at $3,964.97 per ounce, as of 0612 GMT. In the previous session, bullion slipped to $3,942.99 per ounce, its lowest point since last November.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as concerns grew that stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran over a final peace agreement could prolong supply disruptions across the key Middle East oil-producing region.
Brent futures rose 14 cents, or 0.19%, to $73.09 a barrel at 0644 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $69.61 a barrel.
