- Japan Fin Min Aso - World economy faces downside risks, outlook unclear for China, Germany and Europe.
- BoJ Tankan - Firms expect CPI +1.2% in year's time, +1.4% in 3, +1.5% in 5, previous survey +1.4%, +1.5% and +1.6%.
- Japan August unemployment 3.4%, jobs-applicants ratio 1.23, highest since Jan '92 3.3% and 1.22 eyed, July 3.3%, 1.21.
- Japan August household spending +2.5% m/m, +2.9% y/y, +0.5% and +0.4% eyed.
- Japan September monetary base trln, Aug trln, +35.1% y/y.
- Lipper - Investment grade bond funds post record weekly outflows, US-based taxable bond mutual funds post second largest weekly outflows.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings week-ended Sept 30 -$17.875 bln to $3.334 trln, Treasuries -$16.765 bln to $3.007 trln, agencies -$1.090 bln to $281.580 bln.
- NY Fed - Swaps with foreign CBs $142 mln Sept 30 week, all with ECB.
- US September total vehicle sales 18.17 mln AR, August 17.81 mln, light vehicle sales best since July '05, Detroit and Japan sales jump.
- Australia August retail sales +0.4% m/m, as eyed, July -0.1%.
- NZ September ANZ commodity price index +5.5% m/m, after 5-mos of falls, August -5.2%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway September unemployment, 2.9% nsa eyed; last 3.1%, 95.98k sa.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September construction PMI, 57.5 eyed; last 57.3.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ August producer prices, -0.6% m/m, -2.4% y/y eyed; last -0.1%, -2.1%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US September non-farm payrolls, +203k eyed; last +173k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US September unemployment, 5.1% eyed; last 5.1%, 62.6% participation.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US September average earnings, +0.2% m/m, 34.6 hrs eyed; last +0.3%, 34.6.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US September ISM-New York index; last 700.2.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US August factory orders, -1.2% m/m eyed; last +0.4%, -0.6% ex-transport.
Key Events Ahead
- China on holiday till next Thursday.
- N/A Boston Fed Rosengren, ViceChair Fischer, others at Boston Fed conference.
- N/A UK DMO GBP1.5/1.0/2.0 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) US TsySec Lew speech in Washington, DC.
- (0845 ET/1245 GMT) Philly Fed Harker speech at Philly Fed conference.
- (1230 ET/1630 GMT) St Louis Fed Bullard speech in New York.
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Euro came under pressure on Friday after ECB president Draghi commented to economy, down 0.3 pct at $1.1176. ECB head Mario Draghi remains adamant that the European recovery is underway and that the euro zone is more efficient as a united economy, despite the numerous struggles currently facing the trading block. The main focus for the day, US Nonfarm Payroll report for September is expected to show that the country added a bit above 200K new jobs in the month, whilst the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.1%. It made intraday high at 1.1203 and low at 1.1173 levels. Initial support is seen around at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1560 levels.
USD/JPY: Japanese household spending picked up at a solid rate in August, while the jobless rate remained close to its lowest ever, signalling the economy may be starting to head down the path policymakers have been hoping for. Household spending rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, according to Japan's Statistics Bureau, coming in much stronger than the market forecast of a 0.4% increase. This follows declines of 0.2% in July and 2.0% in June. Further data released by the Statistics Bureau on Friday showed the unemployment rate rising from 3.3% in July - an historic low for Japan - to 3.4% in August. Pair is supported below 120.00 levels. Pair made intraday high at 120.04 and low at 119.78 levels. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20 and support is seen at 118.42 levels.
GBP/USD: Sterling inched higher from 5-month lows against the dollar, boosted by a slightly better-than-expected UK manufacturing data released yesterday. Labour market productivity in the UK picked up sharply during the second quarter. The headline figure as measured by output per hour grew 0.9% from the first to the second quarter - the highest level since early 2010, but still some 15% below the pre-downturn trend, the Office for National Statistics informed on Thursday. Today UK will release construction PMI data for the further movement. Pair made intraday high at 1.5147 and low at 1.5126 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.5107 and resistance is seen around 1.5725 levels.
NZD/USD: Today ANZ Commodity Price Index rose for the first time since March, increasing by 5.5% in September. Dairy and aluminium drove the increase in the overall index, while falls were seen across the remaining four major commodity groups. Market will focus on US macroeconomic data for the further movement. Pair is supported around 0.6400 levels. It made intraday high at 0.6420 and low at 0.6383 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6195 and resistance at 0.6511 levels.
AUD/USD: Australian retail sales picked up again in August after declining in July, yet consumers continue to display signs of cautiousness amid precarious economic settings. Retail sales rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% month-on-month in August after falling 0.1% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, coming in as forecast by analysts. Pair made intraday low at 0.7011 levels and high around 0.7055 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6908 and resistance at 0.7245 levels.
Equity Recap
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 0.49% to 17,635.08 points within the first hour of trade, while Tokyo's broader Topix gauge declined 0.45% to 1,436.22 points.
Korea's benchmark Kospi index slipped 0.16% to 1,976.01 points on Friday morning in Seoul.
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index rallied 1.48% to 21,154.19 points shortly after the opening bell, with Hong Kong playing catch up after closing on Thursday, while mainland Chinese markets were closed in observance of National Day.
The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.22% to 5,101.10 points in Sydney, with very mild moves on the index on Friday.
New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.19% to 5,596.22 points this afternoon in Wellington.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closes down 1.11 pct at 5,055.20 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei average closes up 0.02 pct at 17,725.13.
Treasury Recap
Thailand 30 bln baht, 14-day central bank bond average accepted yield 1.49392 pct.
10-year US treasury yield at 2.047 percent vs US close of 2.042 percent on Thursday.
New Zealand government bonds had a soft tone, sending yield one basis points higher on the longer end of the curve.
Australian government bond futures were quiet, with the three-year bond contract up one tick at 98.210. The 10-year contract was half a tick lower at 97.3700.
Commodity Recap
Gold fell to a two-week low on Friday, extending losses into a sixth straight session as investors positioned themselves ahead of U.S. jobs data that could help gauge when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Spot gold had eased 0.1 percent to $1,111.66 an ounce by 0347 GMT, after dipping to $1,110.55 earlier in the session - the lowest since Sept. 16. It has lost nearly 3 percent for the week, its biggest such decline since the week ended July 24.
Oil prices were traded in the green zone on Friday, bouncing back from the steep falls booked in the previous session, with both benchmarks likely to book weekly losses. Futures for WTI jumped 1.12% to trade at $45.24 per barrel, while Brent futures were traded 0.65% up at $48.00 per barrel.
