Market Roundup
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Sep) 7, 4 previous
• Australia NAB Business Survey (Sep) 8, 8 previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Aug) 4.7%, 4.7%forecast,4.8% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) 5.0% 4.7% forecast,4.8% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Sep) 25.8K,10.3K forecast, -2.0K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Aug) 91K,232K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.8%, 4.7%forecast,4.7% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.4%, 2.4%forecast, 2.2% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.2%forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Oct) -75.0 forecast, -76.4 previous
• 09:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 41.2 forecast, 37.3 previous
• 09:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 30.2 forecast, 26.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 10:00 US IMF Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped slightly on Tuesday as investors fretted over uncertainty . Sébastien Lecornu was reappointed as France’s prime minister on Friday, only four days after stepping down from the role. France is experiencing its most severe political crisis in decades, as successive minority governments struggle to pass deficit-cutting budgets through a fractious legislature divided into three sharply opposed ideological blocs . Lecornu will face a no-confidence vote most likely on Thursday. It's unclear if he has the votes needed to survive, as the Socialists - whose support he will almost certainly need to fight on - are keeping their options open. Germany and Eurozone ZEW sentiment surveys will provide insight into investor confidence and expectations, potentially impacting euro moves. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16630(Oct 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1696(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1506(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Tuesday after data showed growth in average British earnings slowed slightly in the three months to August, suggesting the Bank of England may be able to continue cutting interest rates, albeit very gradually. Britain's jobs market showed signs of stabilisation as pay growth increased at the slowest pace since 2022 and a measure of employment rose, according to official data published on Tuesday.Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 4.7% higher in the June-August period than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said, slightly weaker than an increase of 4.8% in the three months to July and the slowest since May 2022. The Bank of England is monitoring inflation pressures in Britain's economy, including wage growth. BoE officials held interest rates at 4% last month, and investors are fully pricing another BoE rate cut only in April 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3368(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3442(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3226(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar regained some ground on Tuesday as investors digested the latest salvoes in the U.S.-China trade war were more symbolic than substantive. Australian dollar had crumbled on Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap 100% tariffs on China by November 1 .Despite the tariff rhetoric, Trump’s softer stance on China over the weekend gave analysts confidence that the move was tactical and that a middle ground might be reached. Currencies from Australia and New Zealand, backed by commodity-driven economies, typically serve as risk hedges when global markets face turbulence.Looking ahead, traders await the RBA’s September meeting minutes on Tuesday and Australia’s September employment report on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6576(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6441(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6414(Aug 22nd low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Tuesday as easing US-China trade tensions dampened safe-haven demand. The yen advanced over 1% on Friday as markets reacted to Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1.Following his threat of 100% tariffs on China from November 1, Trump took a softer tone over the weekend, stating that everything would be fine and the U.S. did not wish to “hurt” China.On Sunday, Beijing defended its restrictions on rare earth exports and related equipment as a response to U.S. actions, while refraining from introducing new tariffs on American goods. In Japan, Monday is a holiday, but political developments remain in focus following a split in the ruling coalition. Key economic events this week include machinery orders and speeches from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and BOJ Board Member Naoki Tamura on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.42(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.96 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.42 (SMA 20).
EquitiesRecap
Asian stocks tumbled on Tuesday, weighed down by rising doubts that China and the U.S. will reach a tariff deal when the world’s two largest economies meet later this month amid renewed trade tensions.
Hang Seng was down 2.11% ,China’sA50 traded down 0.72% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 2.86 %
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, driven by rising expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, which also pushed silver to an all-time peak as investors sought safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 1.7% to a record high of $4,179.48 per ounce, as of 0521 GMT.U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to $4,187.50.
Oil prices turned lower on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, as ongoing uncertainty over U.S.-China trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies raised concerns about potential impacts on global fuel demand.
