- Japan Fin Min Aso - Economy clearly recovering, private sector must understand need to use cash reserves for investment.
- Japan September outstanding bank loans +2.6% y/y to $491.313 trln, Aug +2.7%.
- Fortress Investment Group plans to close flagship fund, heavy losses on Brazil, FX trades, other funds having worst year since GFC.
- China September trade surplus $60.34, near record but exports -3.7% y/y, imports -20.4%, $46.79 bln, -6.3% and -15.0% eyed.
- Fed Gov Brainard - Fed should watch and wait till global risks recede.
- ECB Mersch - Too early for judgment on inflation, ECB determined to use all available means to achieve mandate, no risks to financial stability.
- RBA Dep Gov Lowe - Warns against undue economic pessimism, AUD fall helpful, still flexibility on interest rates.
- Australia September NAB biz conditions index +9, confidence +5, Aug +9, +1.
- NZ Fin Min English - H1 growth soft, '15 growth less than 2%.
- NZ September food price index -0.5% m/m, +0.7% y/y.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland September producer/import prices; last -0.7% m/m, -6.8% y/y.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden September CPI, +0.3% m/m, -0.1% y/y eyed; last -0.2%, -0.2%.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden September CPIF, +0.3% m/m, +0.9% y/y eyed; last -0.1%, +0.8%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September CPI, unchanged m/m, unchanged y/y eyed; last +0.2%, unchanged.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September core, +0.3% m/m, +1.1% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +1.0%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September RPI, +0.1% m/m, +1.0% y/y eyed; last +0.5%, +1.1%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September RPIX; last +0.5% m/m, +1.2% y/y.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September PPI output, -0.1% m/m, -1.8% y/y eyed; last -0.4%, -1.8%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September core, unchanged m/m, +0.2% y/y eyed; last unchanged, +0.1%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK September PPI - input, +0.4% m/m, -12.9% y/y eyed; last -2.4%, -13.8%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Germany October ZEW current conditions index, 64.7 eyed; last 67.5.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Germany October ZEW economic sentiment index, 6.0 eyed; last 12.1.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) US September NFIB business optimism index; last 95.9.
Key Events Ahead
- (0230 ET/0630 GMT) ECB Mersch speech in Singapore.
- N/A Riksbank DepGov Floden speech in Stockholm.
- N/A Spain 6/12-mo bill, Belgium E1.6-2 bln each 3/12-mo tsy certificate sales.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Netherlands E1-2 bln 0.25% 2025 DSL auction.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) BoE Gracie at Thomson Reuters event in Hong Kong.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) UK parliamentary hearing on Vlieghe appointment to BoE MPC.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refinance at fixed 0.05%, E70 bln allotment eyed, last bln.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) BoE MPC McCafferty parliamentary testimony.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) Italy E3-3.5/2-2.5/0.5-1 bln 0.3/1.45/1.65% 2018/22/32 BTP auctions.
- N/A OECD World Forum in Guadalajara, Mexico, various speakers.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) St Louis Fed Bullard speech at NABE annual meeting in Washington, DC.
- (0930 ET/1330 GMT) Ireland FinMin Noonan presents '16 budget.
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) NY Fed Dudley speech at Economic Club of New York luncheon.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) Finland CB Gov Liikanen speech in Helsinki.
- (1330 ET/1730 GMT) Buba Thiele speech in Stuttgart.
- (1400 ET/1800 GMT) BoE Haldane speech in London, US September Federal budget.
- (1610 ET/2010 GMT) RBNZ Gov Wheeler speech in Aukland.
FX Recap
EUR/USD: After a dull start to the week yesterday, Tuesday's European session holds plenty of risk events and will keep the Euro traders busy. ECB policymaker Yves Mersch said in a speech on Tuesday, "It is too soon to say whether negative developments in the global economy will adversely affect the inflation trajectory the central bank envisioned." The European currency is up for the fourth consecutive session after having taken out key falling trend line resistance levels on last week. It made intraday high at 1.1370 and low at 1.1343 levels. Initial support is seen around at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1560 levels.
USD/JPY: Risk-aversion was reinforced in Asia as the weak China trade data disappointed markets once again and dented the investors' confidence in risky assets. Amongst the safe-haven assets, the yen benefited the most, with pair dropping -0.15% to 119.80 levels. The Japanese currency also remains lifted as markets re-assess the Oct 30 BOJ meeting risks and now believe that the central bank could wait for some more time before easing further. While today's BOJ minutes release offered no new surprises and hence had negligible impact on the major. Pair made intraday high at 120.07 and low at 119.80 levels. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20 and support is seen at 118.42 levels.
GBP/USD: Today is an important day for UK markets, as it will see the publication of the UK Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index and also the latest credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys, which are important data in the Bank of England's assessment of economic conditions. Pair made intraday high at 1.5348 and low at 1.5300 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.5107 and resistance is seen around 1.5725 levels.
NZD/USD: Following a ten-day upward rally, the kiwi lost ground following mixed Chinese data on Tuesday, although the New Zealand currency still remains close to its highest level since July. Moreover, the NZD/USD came under pressure amid an overnight sell-off in crude prices, with WTI oil declining 5.4%. The broader negative outlook for commodities seems to be further risk-off sentiment weighing on higher yielding currencies such as the NZD. Pair made intraday high at 0.6716 and low at 0.6656 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6235 and resistance at 0.6721 levels.
AUD/USD: The Aussie was the biggest loser so far in Asia, as the weak internal demand in China as highlighted by the poor import data. China represents New Zealand and Australia's biggest export destination. Before the data, the NZD and AUD were the best performing currencies since the start of the week. Pair made intraday high at 0.7364 levels and low around 0.7293 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6908 and resistance at 0.7438 levels.
Equity Recap
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 0.83% to 18,285.38 points in morning trade, while Tokyo's broader Topix gauge slipped 0.43% to 1,508.63 points.
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index fell 0.61% to 22,593.39 points at the opening bell, and mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.05% to 3,253.25 points at the same time.
Korea's benchmark Kospi index fell 0.30% to 2,015.54 points this morning in Seoul.
The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 0.75% to 5,193.70 points in Sydney, with miners copping the brunt of losses on Monday morning.
New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.36% to 5,710.04 points this afternoon in Wellington.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closes down 0.57 pct at 5,203.20 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei average closes down 1.11 pct at 18,234.74.
Treasury Recap
10-Year U.S treasury yield at 2.056 percent vs U.S close of 2.099 percent on Friday.
Thailand 20 bln baht, 180-day central bank bond average accepted yield 1.44437 pct. Thailand 35 bln baht, 91-day central bank bond average accepted yield 1.41429 pct.
New Zealand government bonds rose, sending yields two basis points lower along the curve.
Australian government bond futures gained, with the three-year bond contract up 2 ticks at 98.150. The 10-year contract added 3 ticks to 97.2950, while the 20-year contract was up 3.5 ticks at 96.7300.
Commodity Recap
Gold fell nearly 1 percent on Tuesday, retreating from a three-month high on profit-taking after a two-day rally triggered by expectations the Federal Reserve will not hike U.S. interest rates this year. Spot gold fell 0.8 percent to $1,154.15 an ounce by 0323 GMT, after earlier dropping as much as 0.9 percent. The metal hit a three-month high of $1,169 in the previous session.
Oil climbed on Tuesday after posting huge losses in the previous session, with the sentiment hurt by returning concerns about the supply glut. Futures for WTI gained 0.76% to trade at $47.46 per barrel, while Brent futures were 0.84% elevated at $50.67 per barrel.
