Dollar Dips as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, Euro and Aussie Gain

The U.S. dollar weakened on Wednesday as investors embraced risk following a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by President Donald Trump. Global markets rallied, with equities hitting record highs, as both nations signaled a pause in hostilities after Trump publicly condemned violations of the truce.

During the 12-day conflict, the dollar served as a safe haven, but optimism over a de-escalation spurred broad selling. In early Asian trading, currency movements remained subdued. The euro hovered near its highest level since October 2021 at $1.1621. The British pound slipped slightly to $1.3615, just off a two-year high. The Australian dollar edged up 0.02% to $0.6492 after a strong rally, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.13% to $0.6015.

The Japanese yen held steady at 144.96, as Bank of Japan officials showed caution over rate hikes amid uncertainty from U.S. tariffs. The Swiss franc, which surged to a 10.5-year high on Tuesday, stabilized at 0.8049 per dollar.

The U.S. dollar index dipped to 97.91. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a patient stance on rate cuts during his congressional testimony, markets still price in an 18% chance of a rate cut in July. Analysts at ANZ expect rate cuts could resume in September due to slowing economic growth and easing inflation, despite new tariffs.

Recent U.S. data, including a drop in consumer confidence and signs of labor market weakness, reinforced expectations of nearly 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.7870%, its lowest in over a month, while the 10-year yield was steady at 4.3043%.