Dollar Steadies as Markets Await Bank of Japan Decision and Fed Outlook

The U.S. dollar held steady in early Asian trading Friday, with investors awaiting fresh direction after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. The dollar index edged up 0.1%, recovering slightly from a three-and-a-half-year low earlier this week. The Fed trimmed rates by 25 basis points but signaled no rush for aggressive easing, keeping the greenback on track for its third consecutive weekly loss.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.1% to 148.09 after Japan reported its slowest core inflation in nine months. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its 0.5% policy rate, though markets are watching for hints of a shift by October. Political uncertainty ahead of the ruling LDP leadership election, where frontrunner Sanae Takaichi aims to become Japan’s first female prime minister, is also seen limiting BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s policy signals.

Traders remain cautious over the long-term outlook for the dollar as the Trump administration’s global tariffs face a Supreme Court review on November 5, a key test of presidential trade powers. At the same time, markets are closely tracking tensions between Trump and the Fed, including his criticism of the pace of rate cuts and his unprecedented move to seek the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Fed funds futures now price in a nearly 92% chance of another 25-basis-point cut in October, up from 87% a day earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries stayed robust, with holdings reaching a record high in July, led by Japan and the U.K.

In broader currency trade, the euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1777, sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3555, and the Australian dollar weakened 0.2% to $0.6601. The kiwi extended losses after weak GDP data, while the offshore yuan slipped to 7.1143 per dollar.