Dollar Struggles as Markets Eye Fed Rate Cut and BOJ Signals

The U.S. dollar opened December on weaker footing as global investors prepared for a pivotal month marked by a potential final Federal Reserve rate cut of the year and growing expectations for a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Currency markets in Asia were particularly focused on Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s upcoming speech, which could offer clues on whether Japan is ready to shift toward a rate hike to help stabilise the yen.

Following last week’s hours-long outage at CME Group that disrupted global trading across major asset classes, foreign exchange markets were back in full action on Monday. Even so, price movements were limited as traders awaited key data releases and policy signals expected throughout December.

The Japanese yen extended earlier gains after fresh data showed corporate investment rose 2.9% in the July–September period compared to the previous year. The figure suggested Japan’s economy is managing the impact of U.S. tariffs better than expected. The yen strengthened 0.2% to 155.84 per dollar, moving away from last month’s 10-month low of 157.90—a level that had prompted speculation of possible intervention. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated concerns over recent “erratic” currency swings, saying they were not aligned with economic fundamentals.

Analysts expect Ueda may use his speech to guide markets toward a potential December rate hike, especially as officials have increasingly expressed concern about rapid yen depreciation. Meanwhile, the euro edged up to $1.1600, and the British pound held steady at $1.3240 after gaining broadly last week following the release of the UK’s long-awaited budget.

Market attention remained fixed on U.S. monetary policy, with traders pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut next week. Reports naming White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate for the next Fed chair also weighed on the dollar, which slipped to 99.42 against a basket of currencies.

In the crypto market, bitcoin fell 3.6% to $87,881.82, while ether dropped 5% to $2,871.59 as broader risk sentiment remained cautious.