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The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to deliver any new policy signals, thus rendering the upcoming meeting on September 13 to be an uneventful one, according to the latest research report from Danske Bank.
In the July meeting and subsequent minutes, the ECB/Mario Draghi pointed to content on (1) economic developments albeit highlighted risks and (2) markets' response to the firmer forward guidance.
The new staff projections for 2019 and 2020 may be revised down marginally compared with the June projections. The central bank, is expected to revise down marginally both the headline and core inflation profiles (1.8 percent core by end-2020).
Further, the ECB is expected to confirm the new EUR15bn purchase rate from October. The CB would also be expected to change the wording 'anticipate' (regarding ending APP this year) to a stronger word.
Such a change would lead to a limited market reaction as a conclusion by the end of the year is already expected. Any change to the APP stance that would materially move the market should be driven by a very soft wording entailing an APP extension beyond December 18.
"We may see an extension of the APP reinvestment period to up to six months (effective October 2018) from the current 'up to month t+2'. On balance, we expect this change to be announced, although it will have limited market impact now while adding flexibility to the implementation of the reinvestment scheme," the report commented.
