Market Roundup
- FOMC ViceChair Fischer: Fed leaning toward BoE stability approach, offers framework for regulating shadow banks.
- Greek PM Tsipras: Debt relief talks to start in June.
- United Kingdom March GfK consumer confidence +4, +2 consensus, best since June '02, Feb +1.
- Australia Feb private sector credit +0.5% m/m, +6.2% y/y, housing +0.5% m/m.
- Australia Feb HIA new home sales +1.1% m/m, Jan +1.8%, multi-unit sales lead.
- New Zealand March ANZ biz confidence net 35.8, own activity 42.2%, Feb 34.4, 40.9.
- New Zealand Feb new dwelling consents -6.3% m/m, third successive fall, Jan revised -4.6%.
- Dalian iron ore futures drop 3%+ on glut fears, plumb contract lows.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0200 EDT/0600 GMT) Germany Feb retail sales, -0.7% m/m consensus; previous +2.3%.
- (0245 EDT/0645 GMT)France Feb consumer spending, unch m/m consensus; previous +0.6% m/m.
- (0245 EDT/0645 GMT)France Feb producer prices; previous -0.9% m/m.
- (0300 EDT/0700GMT) Spain Feb retail sales; previous +6.5% y/y.
- (0355 EDT/0755GMT) Germany Mar unemployment, 6.5% sa, -12k consensus; previous 6.5%, -20k.
- (0355 EDT/0755GMT) Germany Mar unemployment, 2.95 mln nsa consensus; previous 3.00 mln nsa, 2.81 mln sa.
- (0400 EDT/0800GMT) Spain Jan current account balance; previous E4.8 bln surplus.
- (0400 EDT/0800GMT) Italy Feb unemployment, 12.5% consensus; previous 12.6%.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK Q4GDP - final, +0.5% q/q, +2.7% y/y consensus; prelim +0.5%, +2.7%.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK Q4current account balance, bln deficit consensus; previous GBP27.0 bln deficit.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Eurozone Feb unemployment, 11.2% consensus; previous 11.2%.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Eurozone Mar inflation - flash, -0.1% y/y consensus; previous -0.3%, ex-f/e +0.6%.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Italy Mar CPI- prelim, -0.1% y/y consensus; previous +0.4% m/m, -0.1% y/y.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Italy Mar HICP - prelim, +2.2% m/m, +0.1% y/y consensus; previous +0.3%, +0.1%.
- (0600 EDT/1000GMT) Italy Feb producer prices; previous -1.1% m/m, -2.9% y/y.
- (0900 EDT/1300GMT) US Jan CaseShiller 20, +0.6% m/m sa, +0.1% m/m nsa; previous +0.9%, +0.1%.
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT)US Mar Chicago PMI, 51.5 consensus; previous 45.8.
- (1000 EDT/1400GMT) US Mar consumer confidence index, 96.0 consensus; previous 96.4.
- (1030 EDT/1430GMT) US Mar Dallas Fed Texas service outlook, revenues indices; previous 1.7, 13.6.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A UK DMO Q2 calendar, Belgium 3/6-month treasury certificate auctions.
- (0400 EDT/0800GMT) Norway April daily FX operations, March NOK700 mln sales/day.
- (0530 EDT/0930 GMT)ECB 7-day refi at fixed 0.05%, E110 bln allotment eyed, last bln.
- (0700 EDT/1100GMT) Slovakia CB Makuch press conference on quarterly economic update.
- (0800 EDT/1200 GMT)Richmond Fed Lacker speech in Richmond.
- (1015 EDT/1415GMT) Cleveland Fed Mester speech at Atlanta Fed conference.
- (1500 EDT/1900GMT) Kansas City Fed George speech in New York.
FX Recap
USD/JPY has broken above the key 120 handle and trades flat at 120.15 levels in the mid-Asian trading. The pair seems to be holding above the 120 mark, given the rally in US dollar on the back of upbeat US macro data. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 120.40 levels, and a break above could the pair to 121 levels. On the flipside, it is likely to find support at 119.88 levels, and then at 119.50 levels.
AUD/USD extended its move downwards in Asia, hitting fresh eight day lows as falling oil and iron prices weigh on the AUD, along with markets pricing-in further RBA rate cuts in April. It currently trades at 0.7630 levels. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7664 levels, above which it could extend its gains to 0.7700 levels. On the other hand, support is located at 0.7600 levels, below that at 0.7588 levels.
NZD/USD continued trading in the red on Tuesday in the Asian session. It currently trades at 0.7481 levels. It remains under pressure in tandem with the losses seen in AUD as lower oil and iron prices and expectations of RBA rate cut next week weigh on the Antipodeans. The immediate resistance is seen at 0.7545 levels, above which gains could be extended to 0.7600 levels. Support is seen at 0.7464 levels and then at 0.7420 levels.
EUR/USD moved south on Tuesday as US dollar strengthened across board on upbeat US macro data. It currently trades at 1.0792 levels. On the topside, pair is expected to face major resistance at 1.0950 levels and a break above could see it testing 1.1050 levels. On the flipside, support might be located at 1.0750 levels and below that at 1.0650 levels.
USD/CAD soared higher on broader USD strength and is expected to move towards 1.27/1.28 area within a few days. It currently trades at 1.2698 levels, having posted a high of 1.2709 thus far. On the topside, major resistance is seen at 1.28 11 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.2570 levels and a break below could extend its losses to 1.2404 levels.
