Market Roundup
- NZ John Key: Low inflation helping to keep rates lower for longer
- NZ John Key: Getting to budget surplus may take longer than planned
- EUR/USD softer to 1.1125 from 1.1224 highs
- GBP/USD new pullback low 1.5104 from 1.5174 highs
- One-week sterling implied volatility spikes to highest since may 2010 UK elections at 17.725 percent
- EZ May Sentix Index 19.6 vs 20.00 previous, 19.8 expected
- EZ Apr Mfg PMI 52 vs 51.9 previous, 51.9 exp
- DE Apr Mfg PMI 52.1 vs 51.9 previous, 51.9 expected
- FR Apr Mfg PMI 48.0 vs 48.4 previous, 48.4 expected
- IT Apr Mfg PMI 53.8 vs 53.3 previous, 53.5 expected
- CH Apr Mfg PMI 47.9 vs 47.9 previous, 48.0 expected
- UK Elections, Poll Labour 33%, Tory 34%
- Greece cites progress in talks with EU/IMF lenders, aims for May deal
Economic Data Ahead
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) ISM New York Index previous 67.6
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) Factory Orders March market +2.0% m/m, previous +0.2%
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) Ex-Trans Factory Orders Mar previous +0.8% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) FRB Boston's Rosengren opens econ growth/outreach meet; Boston
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) Fed Gov Tarullo on econ/reducing regulatory paperwork; Boston
- (1145 EDT/1545 GMT) FedTrade Ops30-yr Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac max $1.950 bln
- (1225 EDT/1625 GMT) FRB Chicago's Evans on econ conditions/ money policy; Col, IN
- (1510 EDT/1910 GMT) FRB San Fran's Williams on small bus/employment; San Fran
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trading nearby intraday low of 1.1134 levels. Pair also made high of 1.1224 levels. Multiple data came from Euro zone, which were below consensus forecast. After the data release, Euro is continuously trading down side. EUR/USD remains in red after the manufacturing PMI in Germany came out at 52.1, slightly lower than 52.8 in March, while the French estimate printed 48.0 and ticked lower from 48.8 in March. Near term support is seen at 1.1130, 1.1102 levels. On the top side, resistance is seen at 1.1224 (today's high) and 1.1246.
USD/JPY is sustaining above the 120.00 levels, currently trading around 120.15 levels. Very less movement in the USDJPY as Japan banks remain close. Traders now await US factory order data due later in the day for further direction on the US dollar moves which may drive the USD/JPY pair. Initial support is seen at 119.75 and resistance is seen at 120.69 levels.
GBP/USD is supported below 1.5175, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and touched the low of 1.5101. GBP/USD has formed double top around 1.5500 and retreated from that level. This confirms it has formed temporary top around 1.5500 and any further bullishness only above that level. On the upside major resistance is around 1.5260. Any break above will take the pair till 1.5360/1. the downside minor support is around 1.5100 and weakness can be seen below that level.
USD/CHF trades flat around 0.9367 levels after Switzerland's below consensus manufacturing PMI data. Pair was depreciated by 40 pips movement and made high of 0.9383 levels after negative data release. Now market awaits USD Factory order data for the further direction. On the top side, resistance is seen at 0.9387 and support around 1.9315 levels.
AUD/USD is trading in a choppy range since morning ahead of RBA interest rate decision tomorrow. Pair made high of 0.7843 and low at 0.7801 levels. On the upside AUD/USD is facing major resistance around 0.7860 (Tenken-Sen) and any break above will extend gains till 0.7920 (20 day 4HMA)/0.79650. The pair is facing strong support around 0.7790 and break below will drag the pair further down till 0.7740 /0.7709.
