- DXY up to 3 week highs at 96.406. EUR/USD steady and plays in between 1.1032 to 1.1088 levels.
- NZD/USD makes new 5 year low at 0.6670.
- SEK slips to 3 week low on surprise rate cut. EUR/SEK up to 9.37 from 9.24.
- Swedish Central Bank cuts repo rate to -0.35%, purchase of govt bonds extended by 45bln SEK.
- Swedish Central Bank says prepared to intervene in FX if upturn in inflation threatened.
- Spain Finance minister- If Greece votes 'no' the EZ will continue to be open to talks.
- French Finance minister- If 'yes' wins in referendum we'll get back to work to reach deal.
- French Finance minister- If not 'no' if referendum, that could lead to Grexit.
- Varoufakis- I Will resign if Greeks vote 'yes' in Sunday's referendum.
- UK June Nationwide house price -0.2%m/m, +3.3%y/y vs previous +0.2%rvsd/4.6%. 0.5%/4.3 expected.
- UK June Markit/CIPS Cons PMI 58.1 vs previous 55.9. 56.5 expected.
- Euro zone May Producer prices 0.0% m/m, -2.0% y/y vs previous -0.1%/-2.2%. 0.1%/-2.0% expected.
- Polish opposition would not introduce EUR if elected.
- BOJ tankan- Japan firms expect CPI rise to 1.4% in 12 months.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Nonfarm Payrolls (June) consensus 230k, previous+280k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Private Payrolls (June) consensus 225k, previous +262k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Manufacturing Payrolls (June) consensus +5k, previous +7k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Unemployment Rate (June) consensus 5.4%, previous 5.5%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Average Hourly Earnings (June) consensus +0.2% m/m; previous +0.3% m/m, +2.3% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Average Workweek (June) consensus 34.5 hours, previous 34.5 hours.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Initial Claims (week June 27) consensus 270k, previous 271k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Continued Claims (week June 20) consensus 2.236 mn, previous 2.222 mn.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US ISM New York Index previous 683.7.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Factory Orders (May) consensus -0.5% m/m, previous -0.4% m/m.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Ex-Trans Factory Orders (May) previous 0.0%.
Key Events Ahead
- No significant Treasury or Fed events scheduled.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1100 levels and currently trading at 1.1080 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1086 and low at 1.1031 levels. The dollar hit a three-week high against a basket of major currencies, as investors prepared up for a deluge of U.S. data that could back expectations for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates and briefly steal the spotlight from the Greek debt crisis. The Greek drama has seen no developments so far today and moved to a second place, at least temporarily, as the US will release its Nonfarm Payroll monthly report. However, the most crucial data will come on Thursday with the release of non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and jobless claims. Later in the session, ECB's Governor Mario Draghi is expected to speak. Initial support is seen around 1.0952 and resistance is seen around 1.1218 levels.
USD/JPY is supported above 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.58 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.12 and currently trading at 123.46 levels. Pair has been better bid at the start of the month, moving decisively to the upside from the off in Europe all the way through to the US and Asian handover. Tokyo has seen an initial bid and a few pips of a waver here or there, leaving the yen in supply and a positive tone around the greenback. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 121.48 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5620 and low at 1.5580 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5603 levels. The Pound found support in local construction data, showing that the sector rebounded in June, from the almost two year low posted in April, according to the latest Construction PMI reading, up to 58.1. At the same time, the Nationwide Housing Prices report for June showed that the annual pace of house prices slowed in June, moderating to 3.3% from 4.6% in May. Lower prices are positive for the GBP as the BOE fears a housing bubble due to strong surge in price over the last two years. Initial support is seen at 1.5600 and resistance is seen around 1.5737 levels.
EUR/SEK is supported above 9.3300 levels and trading at 9.3365 levels and made intraday low at 9.2264 and high at 9.3680 levels. The Swedish crown fell1 percent on Thursday after Riskbank surprised markets by cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory and saying it would pump more money into the economy, citing risks from Greece. The crown hit a three-week low against the euro and dollar, trading down around 1 percent at 9.3700 and 8.4726 crowns respectively. Near term support is seen at 9.2875 levels and resistance is seen at 9.3922 levels.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7600 levels and trading at 0.7605 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7656 levels and low at 0.7598 levels. Pair was a minor offer in Tokyo's progression on a better bid greenback and then the Aussie's negative trade balance. Australia's international trade balance remains in the red with a deficit of $2.75 billion in May, larger than the $2.25 million deficit expected by economists. The release of US NFP job data could be very influential for the greenback and would impact on AUD$ too. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels.
