Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.4%, 0.1% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Oct) 1.7%, 1.4% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%, 0.0% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.8%, 2.0% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.5%, -0.4% previous
• UK CPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.3%, 2.2% forecast, 1.7% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.6%, 0.0% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Oct) 135.00, 134.20 previous
• UK PPI Input (YoY) (Oct) -2.3%, -1.9% forecast
• UK PPI Input (MoM) (Oct) 0.1%, 0.5%, -0.5% previous
• UK PPI Output (YoY) (Oct) -0.8%, -0.6% previous
• UK PPI Output (MoM) (Oct) 0.0%, -0.1% previous
• UK RPI (YoY) (Oct) 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 2.7% previous
• UK RPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.5%, -0.3% previous
• German PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Oct) -1.1%, -1.1% forecast, -1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 2.089M previous
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.175M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.321M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.688M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:00 UK MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•17:15 US FOMC Member Bowmen Speaks
•18:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Wednesday as dollar rebounded while, investors monitored ongoing developments around the Ukraine-Russia conflict. A day after Russia lowered its nuclear strike threshold, media reported that Vladimir Putin expressed willingness to discuss a Ukraine ceasefire with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, contingent on Ukraine ruling out major territorial concessions and abandoning its NATO membership aspirations. Meanwhile, the ECB has warned about a "bubble" in AI-related stocks, which could burst abruptly if investors' rosy expectations are not met. There are no Eurozone data on Wednesday's calendar.The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Dec. 12. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling initially gained but gave up ground on Wednesday as higher than expected UK CPI figures have added very little to the rate cut debate for the Bank of England. British inflation jumped by more than expected last month to rise back above the Bank of England's 2% target and underlying price growth gathered speed too, showing why the BoE is moving cautiously on interest rate cuts.Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.3% in October, pushed up almost entirely by an increase in regulated domestic energy tariffs, after a 1.7% rise in September which was the first time the inflation rate had fallen below the BoE's target since 2021. Services inflation which the BoE views as a key measure of domestically generated price pressure rose to 5.0% in October from 4.9% in September, the Office for National Statistics said, in line with BoE and market expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2696(SMA 5), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2723(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2592 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(My 14th low)
AUD/USD: The Australian eased on Wednesday as dollar rebounded as investors awaited more clues on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies. Minutes from the RBA's November policy meeting suggested that the central bank plans to maintain a tight monetary policy until it is sure that inflation is consistently heading toward its objective. The upcoming important economic data is the consumer price index for October, scheduled for release on Nov. 27, with predictions of another low reading following a significant decrease to an annual 2.1% in September. At GMT 05:55, The Aussie was trading down 0.35% at 0.6509 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6555(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(SMA 21).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6481(Nov 19th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as verbal interventions from Japanese authorities failed to stabilize the yen, while the dollar rebounded sharply. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that any upcoming interest rate increases would happen slowly, based on economic circumstances, with no exact schedule mentioned. The 160 level is being closely watched by markets as a possible catalyst for additional government intervention, mirroring the actions taken back in July. Regarding the economy, Japanese exports increased by 3.1% in October, rebounding from a 1.7% drop in September and surpassing the expected 2.2% rise. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.56(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.96(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.22(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.50(21SMA).
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index was set to snap a three-session streak of declines on Wednesday as technology stocks rebounded, while safe-haven bids took a backseat.
At (GMT 12:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.35 %percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.99 %percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.15% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased from a one-week high on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened, though safe-haven demand linked to Russia-Ukraine tensions helped cap further losses.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at 2,623.48 per ounce, as of 1047 GMT, after hitting its highest levels since Nov. 11 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.2% to $2,626.80.
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as fears of potential disruptions to Russian oil supply due to the escalating Ukraine conflict counterbalanced data showing a rise in U.S. crude stocks.
Brent crude futures for January gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.53 per barrel at 10:26 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December, set to expire on Wednesday, rose by 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $69.70.
