Market Roundup
• Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) 0.50% ,0.75% forecast,1.00% previous
• Italian 15-Year BTP Auction 3.19%, 3.93% previous
• Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.35%, 2.73% previous
• Italian 30-Year BTP Auction 3.940%, 4.040% previous
• Italian 7-Year BTP Auction 2.92%, 3.23% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% previous
•13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Nov) 3.5% previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,880K forecast, 1,871K previous
•13:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Nov) 3.2% forecast, 3.1% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 221K forecast, 224K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 218.25K previous
•13:30 US PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 US PPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Oct) -4.8%forecast, 11.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) 3.00% forecast, 3.25% previous
• 13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the ECB's monetary policy meeting later today. The European Central Bank is almost set to drop interest rates again on Thursday, signaling additional reduction in 2025, as eurozone inflation approaches its target and the economy shows indications of weakness. The ECB has already lowered interest rates in three of its last four sessions. The question today is whether the bank is easing swiftly enough to support an economy on the verge of recession, facing political upheaval, and the danger of a fresh trade war with the United States. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0541(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0605(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0473(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0439(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound crept higher on Thursday as the dollar fell after US pricing data met expectations, fueling optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. The consumer price index increased 0.3% last month, the most since April, after rising 0.2% for four months in a row, according to statistics released on Wednesday. Economists polled predicted the index will climb 0.3%.According to CME's FedWatch tool, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by a quarter-point on December 18 has increased to more than 94%. The focus is now on U.S. Producer Price Index data, due at 1330 GMT, to provide insights into the Fed's 2025 policy.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2830(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2933 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2728(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2598(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded on Thursday after stronger-than-expected jobs data dampened expectations of an early interest rate cut. The data revealed a surprise drop in unemployment, falling to an eight-month low of 3.9% in November, defying analysts' forecasts of a 4.2% rise in jobless claims. Employment also rose by 35,600, surpassing the expected 25,000 and extending the resilience of the labor market. Swap markets reacted sharply, reducing the implied chance of a February rate cut to around 50%, down from 68% prior to the jobs data release. This shift helped the Aussie gain 0.4%, reaching $0.6392, and away from a 13-month of $0.6337 hit overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6459(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6512(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6408(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6347(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased versus the yen on Thursday as the market digested the US CPI data, while uncertainty regarding the timing of anticipated interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan weighed on the yen. Market expectations for a December rate hike fell after reports showed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sees little point in waiting before acting. While some BOJ officials have hinted at a rate hike next week based on incoming data and market movements, investors are now turning to Friday's Japanese business confidence figures for more insight into the country's economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.09 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.61(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.61(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped on Thursday, as investors braced for a rate cut from the European Central Bank and awaited hints on policy moves next year as the euro zone economy struggles with slowing growth and heightened political risks..
At GMT 13:09,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.03percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as a forecast for ample supply in the oil market offset optimism stemming from rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut.
Brent crude futures were down 8 cents at $73.44 a barrel at 1303 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3 cents to $70.32. Both benchmarks rose by more than $1 on Wednesday.
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday but remained close to a five-week high, as risk appetite grew ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision and investors awaited U.S. PPI data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.
Spot gold dipped 0.3% to $2,709.89 per ounce by 1210 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.5% to $2,742.50.
