Market Roundup
•Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast,0.6% previous
•Swiss May KOF Leading Indicators 100.3,102.2 forecast,101.8 previous
•Italian Apr Monthly Unemployment Rate6.9% ,7.3% forecast,7.2% previous
•Italian Apr Italian PPI (YoY)-5.9%,-9.6% previous
•EU May Business Climate -0.39,-0.53 previous
•EU May Selling Price Expectations 6.4, 5.4 previous
•EU May Consumer Inflation Expectation 12.5,11.6 previous
•EU May Business and Consumer Survey 96.0,96.2 forecast,95.6 previous
•EU May Services Sentiment 6.5 6.5,6.0 previous
•EU Apr Unemployment Rate 6.4%,6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
•Canada Current Account (Q1)-5.4B,-5.5B forecast,-4.5B previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)1.3%,1.6% forecast,3.4% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q1)1.7%,2.0% forecast,3.9% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q1)2.0% ,2.5% forecast,3.3% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)3.1%,3.1% forecast,1.7% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q1)3.60% ,3.70% forecast,2.00% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q1)3.3%, 3.4% forecast,1.8% previous
•US Apr Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% forecast, -0.4% previous
•US Apr Goods Trade Balance -99.41B, -91.90B forecast,-92.29B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims219K, 218K forecast,216K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,791K ,1,800K forecast,1,787K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.222.50K,220.00K previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM)0.2% ,0.0% forecast,-0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 84B ,77B forecast,78B previous
•15:00 US Gasoline Production -0.038M ,0.351M previous
•15:00 US Gasoline Inventories 2.022M , 1.000M forecast,-0.945M previous
•15:00 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 2.544M, 0.400M forecast,0.379M previous
•15:00 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.034M ,0.260M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -4.156M ,-1.600M forecast, 1.825M previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275%, 5.275% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.270% , 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:05 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•18:50 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar dipped after US economy grew less than previously expected in the first quarter. Meanwhile, investors awaited more economic data from the euro zone that will provide insights in the European Central Bank's interest rate path. The main focus will be on the euro zone's economic sentiment data, due at 0900 GMT, expected to see a slight improvement in May, while April's unemployment rate due at the same time will help gauge the economic strength of the region.Money markets currently see a 33 basis points of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the first cut expected only in December, while the ECB is expected to deliver its first cut next week. The euro was up 0.2% at $1.082 after dropping 0.5% on Wednesday to touch a two-week low of $1.0789 overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0878(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0908(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0798 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0739(50% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Thursday after falling sharply the previous day as a jump in U.S. bond yields boosted the dollar. Data released on Thursday by the Commerce Department showed U.S. gross domestic product grew 1.3% January-March, down from an advance estimate of 1.6%, following downward revisions to consumer spending. Meanwhile, jobless claims data from the Labor Department came in at 219,000 in the last week, higher than a forecast by economists polled by of 218,000. The strong U.S. figures, along with better-than-expected UK growth and inflation data in recent weeks, have caused traders to reduce their bets on Bank of England rate cuts this year to 27 basis points, implying just one reduction in 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2778(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2817(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2683(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2621(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar fell sharply against the Swiss franc on Thursday after revised data showed US economy growing slower than expected.The U.S. economy grew more slowly in the first quarter than previously estimated after downward revisions to consumer and equipment spending and a key measure of inflation ticked down, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to possibly begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year.Gross domestic product the broadest measure of economic activity - grew at an 1.3% annualized rate from January through March, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday, down from the advance estimate of 1.6% and notably slower than the 3.4% pace in the final three months of 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9103 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9141 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9033(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9008(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against yen on Thursday after revised data showed that gross domestic product - the broadest measure of economic activity - grew at slower pace than previously expected in the first quarter, after the currency rose to a two-week high the previous day.The Commerce Department reported the U.S. economy grew at an 1.3% annualized rate from January through March, down from the advance estimate of 1.6% after downward revisions to consumer spending.The index tracking the U.S. currency against its major peers climbed to 105.18 overnight, the highest since May 14, but was last down 0.33% at 104.78.The dollar was down 0.57% against the Japanese yen at 156.755 after hitting a one-month high of 157.72 the previous day. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.40(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.89(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.77(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares recouped early losses to edge higher on Thursday, supported by healthcare stocks, as investors await more economic data from the euro zone that will provide insights in the European Central Bank's interest rate path.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.61 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 1.11 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.53 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held largely steady on Thursday following the release of U.S. economic data and ahead of crude stockpiles data.
Brent futures were down 37 cents, or 0.44%, to $83.23 a barrel as of 1410 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 22 cents, or 0.28%, to $79.01.
Gold prices gained on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields slipped after U.S. economic data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is firmly on track to cut interest rates this year.
Spot gold was last up 0.21% at $2,345.26 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were up at $2,364.30.
