Market Roundup
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Nov) -24.1,-22.0 forecast, -22.5 previous
• Italian Business Confidence (Oct) 88.3, 87.5 forecast, 87.4 previous
• Italian Consumer Confidence (Oct) 97.6, 96.8 previous
• France Jobseekers Total (Sep) 3,082.0K, 3,021.8K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Aug) -0.1%forecast, -0.1% previous
• 13:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 2.3% previous
• 13:00 US House Price Index (Aug) 433.4 previous
• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Aug) -0.1% previous
• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug) 1.4%forecast, 1.8% previous
• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) -0.3% previous
•14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 93.4 forecast, 94.2 previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (Sep) 710K forecast, 800K previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 20.5% previous
•14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Oct) -11 forecast, -17 previous
•14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Oct) -20 previous
•14:00 US Richmond Services Index (Oct) 1 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Oct) -2.4 previous
•14:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Oct) -5.6 previous
•15:30 US 52-Weeks Bill Auction 3.540% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose to hit one week high on Tuesday as dollar weakened ahead of a series of major central bank meetings expected to result in a U.S. rate cut, while keeping a close watch on President Donald Trump’s Asia tour for signs of a trade breakthrough with China.Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials have reportedly reached a framework for a trade deal, setting the stage for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to review the agreement when they meet Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. Investors await major central bank policy announcements scheduled this week. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank is all but likely to keep rates on hold on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on Tuesday as easing global trade tensions lifted risk appetite. Attention now turns to Thursday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea, after top Chinese and U.S. officials agreed on a trade deal framework over the weekend. Markets will also watch for signals from the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell on potential rate cuts, as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown limits access to key economic data. Traders are currently pricing in another rate cut in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held firm on Tuesday as optimism over U.S.–China trade progress that lifted risk sentiment. U.S. officials said senior negotiators had agreed on a deal framework, paving the way for a Trump–Xi meeting on Thursday. Additional support came from RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments on inflation, seen as signaling caution ahead of Australia’s Q3 CPI release. The trimmed mean CPI, due Wednesday at 0030 GMT, is expected to rise 0.8% q/q and 2.7% y/y. Markets now price a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the RBA’s November 4 meeting, down from 60% earlier Monday, with one cut still fully expected by February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6576(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.671(Oct 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6445(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday as the yen strengthened ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Two hawkish BOJ members, Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata, have recently advocated raising the policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%. The BOJ, which ended its decade-long ultra-loose policy in 2024 and delivered two rate hikes by January, faces political pressure to curb the yen’s decline. Markets largely expect the central bank to hold rates at 0.5% this week, awaiting clarity on the new administration’s policy direction before pricing in another hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday, taking a breather after three straight record highs, as investors weighed easing U.S.–China trade tensions and a wave of corporate earnings.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dropped over 2% to a three-week low on Tuesday, as easing trade tensions boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the safe-haven metal, while investors focused on this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Spot gold was down 1.4% at $3,924.99 per ounce, as of 1140 GMT, hitting its lowest level since October 6.U.S. gold futures for December delivery lost 2% to $3,940.20 per ounce.
Oil prices fell over 1% on Tuesday, marking a third straight decline, as investors weighed the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms and a possible OPEC+ plan to boost production.
Brent crude futures were down 93 cents, or 1.4%, to $64.69 a barrel at 1137 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 84 cents, or 1.4%, at $60.47.
