Europe Roundup : Euro edges higher against dollar, European shares drop ,Gold gains , Oil prices plunges -April 4th,2025

Market Roundup

•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Mar) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous

•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous

• Sweden CPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.7%, -0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous

•  Sweden CPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.5%, 0.8% forecast, 1.3% previous

•  Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.6% forecast, 2.9% previous

•  Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) (Mar) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous

•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.0%, 3.4% forecast, -5.5% previous

•French Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous

•Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) -1.9%, -1.2% previous

•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Mar) 52.4, 48.2 previous

• HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Mar) 40.3, 41.2 previous

• HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Mar) 43.8 ,39.8previous

• Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) -1.5%,0.9% previous      

• Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast,-0.4%previous

•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 46.4, 46.3 forecast, 44.6 previous           

•UK Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ)  -13.4B   ,-10.8B  forecast, -12.5B                previous             

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

• 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous

• 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar) 3.9% forecast, 4.0% previous

• 12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Mar) 34.2 forecast, 34.1 previous

• 12:30 US Government Payrolls (Mar) 11.0K previous

• 12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Mar) 4K forecast, 10K previous

• 12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 137K forecast, 151K previous

• 12:30 US Participation Rate (Mar) 62.4% previous

• 12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 127K forecast, 140K previous

• 12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Mar) 8.0% previous

• 12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous

• 12:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Mar) 4.0% previous

• 12:30 Canada Employment Change (Mar) 10.4K forecast, 1.1K previous

• 12:30 Canada Employment Change (Mar) -19.7K previous

• 12:30 Canada Part Time Employment Change (Mar) 20.8K previous

• 12:30 Canada Participation Rate (Mar) 65.3% previous

• 12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.7% forecast, 6.6% previous

• 17:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 483 forecast, 484 previous

• 17:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 592 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)

•15:25 US  Fed Chair Powell Speaks

•16:00 US  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks

•16:45 US  Fed Waller Speaks

Currency Forecast

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Friday as   investors weighed the impact of U.S. tariffs. Trump's latest tariff salvo has sparked an investor stampede for safe havens such as government bonds, the yen and gold as they hastily dumped risk assets. Data on Friday showed German industrial orders stagnated in February and the January data were upwardly revised, showing that Germany's industrial sector could have bottomed out but the recovery may be slow. Markets await the release of a monthly U.S. payrolls report later in the day that will offer clues to the health of the economy and the outlook for monetary easing. The euro edged up by 0.35% to $1.1076 after a 1.9% jump on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1079(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1156(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0935(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0865(19th March low).

GBP/USD: Sterling declined against the dollar on Friday as  investors grappled with prospects of a global recession after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on trading partners. Trump unveiled the sweeping set of penalties   on allies and antagonists alike, roiling financial markets and stoking fears of a global trade war.Europe was hit with a 20% U.S. import tariff rate, prompting traders to increase their bets on interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank to shore up economic growth.A crucial March U.S. jobs report at 1230 GMT will be scrutinized to gauge the health of the world's biggest economy before the latest round of tariffs ignited recession fears. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3109(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3211(April 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2915(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2829(Lower BB).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dropped sharply on Friday as rising concerns over a global recession, triggered by tariffs, led to a wave of risk aversion. Recession fears intensified as global stocks continued to fall after Trump’s broad tariffs. The tariffs hit equity markets hard, with analysts warning of a potential global recession, which poses a particular risk to Antipodean economies reliant on commodity exports for growth.  U.S. payrolls report  is due later in the day that will offer clues to the health of the US  economy and the outlook for Fed monetary easing .At GMT 12:19, The Australian dollar  was last  trading down 1.86% to $0.6211. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6215(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6030(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).

 USD/JPY: The dollar fell on Friday as demand for the safe-haven yen surged after President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, raising fears of a trade war and global recession. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets like government bonds, the yen, and gold, while dumping riskier assets. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would closely monitor the tariffs' impact on Japan’s economy when setting policy, noting the tariffs could slow both global and domestic growth. The BOJ’s next policy meeting will be held from April 30 to May 1, when updated growth and inflation forecasts through fiscal 2027 will be released.Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.57(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.36(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.77(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European shares fell sharply on Friday as China retaliated with steep tariffs following Trump’s announcement of sweeping levies, heightening concerns of a global recession sparked by the trade war.

At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 3.87 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 3.81 percent, France’s CAC  was down by 3.84 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Friday, following a record high in the previous session, as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid escalating global trade tensions after China imposed new tariffs in response to Trump’s extensive levies.

Spot gold firmed 0.5% at $3,128.76 an ounce as of 1116 GMT, after falling 1% earlier in the session, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.9% at $3,151.20.

Oil prices dropped 8% on Friday, on track for their lowest close since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021, as China retaliated in the intensifying global trade war with the U.S. following President Donald Trump's series of new tariffs this week.

Brent futures dived by $5.30, or 7.6%, to $64.84 a barrel by 1254 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $5.47, or 8.2%, to $61.48.